December's financial markets are being torn between two completely opposite scenarios—a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while the Bank of Japan is preparing to raise rates. This "one loose, one tight" policy divergence is reshaping the direction of global capital flows.

**On the Fed's side: Rate cut expectations are almost set in stone**

The market's probability for a 25 basis point rate cut in December once surged to nearly 90%. When employment data looked bad, Wall Street immediately shifted its stance.

What does a rate cut mean for BTC? Simply put, it means more money and cheaper money. Every time the Fed injects liquidity, risk assets tend to take off. The "digital gold" narrative for BTC becomes most attractive at times like this—when currency is devaluing, everyone wants something that can preserve value. Look at the UAE—sovereign funds are directly investing hundreds of millions, making their position very clear.

But why is BTC still stuck grinding around $90,000? Because the good news has already been priced in. Now, people are more worried about the possibility of a "hawkish rate cut" from the Fed—a cut, but with tough talk, hinting there won't be further cuts. In that scenario, the market might actually be disappointed. So now, everyone is just waiting for the final outcome.

**On the Bank of Japan's side: A dramatic shift**

Recently, the BOJ governor made some very hawkish comments, and the market is now pricing in over a 76% chance of a December rate hike.

How big is the impact? The yen soared instantly, and Japanese stocks plunged. More importantly, if Japan really does hike rates, the decades-long "yen carry trade" game might come to an end. Simply put—people used to borrow ultra-low interest yen to buy all kinds of assets, but with rates rising, this money needs to be paid back quickly. Trillions of dollars globally might be unwound and repatriated, and even the crypto market could be affected.

**What does this mean for crypto?**

One central bank is preparing to inject liquidity, another is about to tighten. In the short term, there will definitely be volatility—that goes without saying. But looking at the bigger picture, global monetary policy is undergoing a paradigm shift, and BTC's role in this process is becoming increasingly important.

Short-term volatility is the norm, but the long-term logic is clear: this "liquidity adjustment" driven by central banks is pushing BTC to new heights. Will you panic and sell during the volatility, or patiently wait for value to be reassessed? Everyone has their own answer.