#BitcoinActivityPicksUp New On-Chain Signals Emerge Ahead of the FOMC Meeting

As markets prepare for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision, Bitcoin is showing a series of new on-chain signals that suggest shifting behavior among long-term holders. Traders widely expect the Fed to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, and much of this expectation is already priced into risk assets. But beneath the surface, deeper on-chain metrics reveal growing uncertainty.

Dormant Bitcoin Supply Awakens as Market Awaits Policy Clarity
More than 2,400 BTC, untouched for over a decade, moved this week—activating more than $215 million worth of long-dormant supply. These old coins rarely shift unless their holders intend to reposition or distribute them, and historically, such movement occurs in anticipation of market strength rather than during accumulation phases.

This activity suggests that experienced holders are becoming active again and may be preparing to sell into liquidity. Earlier this year, similar revived supply was absorbed by strong demand; however, analysts now note that buyers appear to be stepping back while veteran holders are offloading coins. When stale supply returns in periods of weakening demand, price performance has often struggled.

Soft ETF Flows Reflect Waning Institutional Momentum
ETF inflows remain subdued, with net flows indicating reduced institutional engagement compared to previous peaks. Without renewed liquidity, any upward moves in price may face resistance. Nonetheless, long-term institutional sentiment remains optimistic. Many analysts believe Bitcoin may have outgrown its traditional four-year halving cycle and could be entering an extended phase of structural adoption.

Current projections place Bitcoin’s potential trajectory at $150,000 in 2026, with a possible cycle peak around $200,000 in 2027, assuming favorable macro conditions and continued ecosystem expansion.

Macro Forces Now in Control — All Eyes on the Federal Reserve
For the immediate term, Bitcoin’s direction hinges heavily on the Federal Reserve’s next move. A rate cut would inject liquidity, lower capital costs, weaken the dollar, and potentially support ETF demand—all factors that could help absorb selling pressure from long-term holders. Conversely, a delayed or smaller-than-expected cut could introduce volatility and amplify the impact of reactivated supply, creating conditions for deeper corrections before the next sustained recovery.

Bitcoin at a Crossroads
At present, Bitcoin sits in a delicate balance between shifting on-chain behavior and a macroeconomic environment in flux. The revival of decade-old coins signals caution among long-term holders, while markets await clarity from the Fed on future liquidity conditions. Investors will be watching the FOMC announcement closely to determine whether the market is building resilience—or whether further downside risks are mounting.