It's Friday again, and this week's market has been painfully dull. US stocks are moving sideways, BTC is dragging its feet, and everyone is eagerly waiting to see what move the Fed will make in December. Everything looks calm on the surface, but there are already undercurrents brewing beneath.

Those data releases yesterday? Honestly, they didn't even make a splash. Right now, the market is focused on one thing—whether the next rate cut will be the usual 25 basis points, or if they'll surprise everyone with a bigger move.

Looks like we'll just scrape by this week. The real action is next week: the dot plot will be released, Powell will speak, and a bunch of data will come out in quick succession. That's when I'll be preparing for a mid-term position.

Speaking of rate cuts, I almost hope they don't cut this time. If they hold off until next year and deliver a 50bp cut all at once, it will keep the market's expectations alive and fuel more speculation and volatility. The market needs expectations and hype to move; retail investors only pile in when there's a story. If they cut now and everyone’s happy, the effect might wear off immediately. If they really drop 50bp at this critical moment, it could signal the end of this rally—the curtain call, and everyone leaves.

Also, Powell absolutely must not be replaced. Seriously, if he gets swapped out, US stocks will tank and BTC will crash instantly. If you like those chain-reaction meltdowns, go ahead, but I definitely don’t want to see that.

Right now, a ton of longs are stuck and can't get out. If the market can push up a bit more, at least these guys can breathe and unwind their positions. Otherwise, they'll just have to wait to break even—how can anyone keep their cool that long? Might as well look for a chance to buy the dip in Q1 next year.