On the December calendar, two major central bank events are set to collide.

First, on the 10th: Over at the Federal Reserve, a rate cut is almost a done deal—the "FedWatch" tool shows the probability has been consistently above 85% in recent days. The market has already fully priced in an easing expectation. The signal for liquidity is clear.

But what about the 19th? The Bank of Japan is taking a completely different approach. The governor has already hinted in advance, and a rate hike is basically set in stone.

This makes things interesting: one side is easing, the other is tightening—two forces going head-to-head.

Normally, you might think a Fed rate cut = good news, yen rate hike = selling pressure risk. But don’t forget, we’re still in an overall bear market environment, where "bad news materializes fast, good news doesn’t help much."

So, the most likely scenario is—the shock from Japan’s rate hike will outweigh the positive effects of the Fed’s rate cut. Once the rate hike actually happens, those arbitrage funds might pull out faster than you expect, and the crypto market could remain under pressure.

At this stage, it’s best to stay cautious. Don’t expect a strong rebound; risks clearly outweigh opportunities.