#美联储FOMC会议 U.S. Treasuries have become an unavoidable risk point in global financial markets. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed back to 4.16%. This should have been a bullish signal for the Fed’s upcoming rate cuts, but there’s no sign of optimism in global markets. The root of this contrast is stark—the yield on Treasuries is being pushed up by multiple forces, directly raising global financing costs and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, with all kinds of assets being dragged down.

Although the Bank of Japan’s rate hike was anticipated by the market, each move still stirs up waves in Treasury yields. At the same time, the U.S. AI boom is pouring in massive investment—just the annual construction of data centers and chip procurement requires $3 trillion, but the cash flow of these tech giants can barely cover $1.5 trillion, with the remaining shortfall all relying on debt financing. What’s even more striking is that bonds issued by these profitable companies are actually more attractive than Treasuries, siphoning funds away from the Treasury market.

On top of that, there are debates over the Fed’s independence—the market speculates the new shadow chair, Hassett, might lean dovish and be inclined toward aggressive rate cuts. If that happens, it could plant the seeds for future inflation, putting additional downward pressure on Treasuries.

Behind these seemingly chaotic phenomena, the real logic points to one thing: the U.S. is on the verge of issuing nearly $40 trillion in Treasuries, with no signs of deficit easing. This is the root of the problem.

The answer will be revealed the day after tomorrow. Will a rate cut as expected turn out to be bearish? How will the market react? Let’s wait and see.