2025-12-09 19:42:34

December 2 Market Scan

The prediction market Opinion, part of a major platform ecosystem, recently secured a new round of funding, totaling tens of millions of US dollars. According to Defillama data, the project generated $880,000 in revenue over the past 7 days and $2.14 million in the past 30 days. Its revenue-generating capability is decent.

The first Launchpad project on a certain DEX platform, Aztec, is launching tonight with a floor price of 0.027, putting its FDV at around $280 million. However, tokens can't be unlocked immediately after the launch—you have to wait until February 11, 2026, to see the governance vote result. If it doesn't pass, the lock-up continues until November 13, 2026. The terms are too harsh, so I'm choosing to wait and see.

The Block released November data: in prediction markets, Kalshi captured 60.8% market share, Polymarket took 39%, and all other projects combined were under 1%. Kalshi is now collaborating with Solana, and that's a strong combination.

Tomorrow, (December 3), HumidiFi will launch on Jupiter. I haven't seen the exact valuation yet, but if it's not too outrageous, I plan to participate a bit. Today, Elizabeth—who was previously accused of fraudulent donations—tweeted about this project; not sure if it was an ad. Setting that aside, HumidiFi itself is profitable—according to November DEX aggregator trading volumes, Jupiter ranked first with $48 billion, and most of the trades on Jupiter are routed through HumidiFi’s dark pool. Even if the fee per transaction is low, the volume guarantees profit potential. So, if the valuation is reasonable, it's worth trying.

On the regulatory front, there's news: the SEC chairman said the crypto company innovation exemption policy will take effect in January 2026, and the SEC will also amend rules to help crypto companies IPO. Does this mean you can both issue tokens and go public?

Lastly, Grayscale predicts Bitcoin will hit a new high in 2026, directly rejecting the four-year cycle theory.

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TokenAlchemist

· 16h ago

ngl, that Aztec lockup structure is actually genius for preventing ape dumps but yeah, pass. the risk/reward just doesn't arbitrage cleanly when you're bleeding theta on a 2-year horizon.

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JustHodlIt

· 12-10 19:27

Aztec's unlock timeline is really impressive, voting not until February 2026? How long do I have to wait? I'll just wait and see. HumidiFi relies solely on trading volume, and Jupiter's volume is indeed promising, just worried that the valuation might be directly disappointing. Kalshi and Solana's partnership truly can't be beat, with a 60.8% share crushing the competition. Grayscale says it will reach a new high in 2026, breaking the four-year cycle theory? That's pretty interesting. Opinion's revenue data looks good, but the scale of their funding seems just so-so. Regulatory easing is a good thing, no doubt, but I'm just worried it might be another fleeting promise.

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TokenomicsShaman

· 12-09 20:12

Aztec's lock-up schedule is really something else. We even have to wait for the voting results to decide when the tokens will be unlocked. Are they testing our patience?

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failed_dev_successful_ape

· 12-09 20:07

Aztec’s lock-up period is really something—you can’t move anything until 2026, and even then it depends on whether the vote passes or not? I don’t have that much patience, I’ll just watch from the sidelines. HumidiFi definitely has scale, and Jupiter’s traffic is obvious, but Elizabeth’s recent moves are honestly a bit awkward. Something just feels off. Grayscale’s prediction is pretty bold, daring to deny the four-year cycle. Are they really that bullish, or just trying to hype things up again? Kalshi plus Solana is a killer combo—the prediction market landscape is basically set. Opinion’s funding round is decent, but compared to the amount raised, how long will it take to see a return? If HumidiFi’s valuation isn’t crazy for tomorrow’s launch, it’s actually worth getting in. I just hope it’s not another case where it skyrockets at first and then crashes below cost. If the SEC’s policy really goes into effect, crypto could be in for a major shakeup. Issuing both tokens and stocks? That’s a pretty novel concept.

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TokenTherapist