At 9:15 tonight, there’s a data release that could directly shake up the Bitcoin market.

Recently, both the Federal Reserve and the market have found themselves in an awkward spot: all the official non-farm and inflation data have gone "missing," which is like driving blind in thick fog—no one can truly see the real state of the US economy. At times like this, the US November ADP employment data, to be released at 21:15 tonight, becomes the only lifeline everyone can grab onto—all eyes will be on it.

How much impact does this data have on the crypto market? The logic is actually pretty simple: the weaker the employment data, the stronger the market’s expectation for rate cuts, and the more likely risk assets are to benefit. Right now, the probability of a December rate cut has already soared above 80%. If tonight’s ADP number comes in even worse than the expected 10,000, then the expectation for a rate cut will be basically cemented, and market sentiment will definitely explode.

But let me remind you—this kind of rally, driven by a single data point, is usually a combo of “emotional impulse + short squeeze.” It comes fast and goes just as quickly, and may not change the mid-term trend. A common mistake for retail investors at times like this is to get caught up in the excitement when the price surges, only to buy in at the short-term top and get stuck.

My suggestion? First, don’t lose your head. If the data is released and the coin price spikes instantly, take a breath for three seconds and don’t rush in. Second, if you’re holding spot or short-term positions, consider taking some profits during this emotional high—better safe than sorry. Lastly, control your position size, especially don’t use too much leverage—the market is like a fully drawn bow right now, and the data is the string being let go; any movement will be amplified.

Whether you feast or get burned tonight all comes down to this final moment. Remember, at key moments, keeping a steady mindset is more important than anything else.