December 4, 2025, the bull is still running—just lowered its head to take a sip of water.

You know how the crypto market rhythm goes: surge, pullback, bear market, dormancy, then a new bull run comes again.

I checked the on-chain data from the day before yesterday, and Bitcoin's turnover rate is going down. What does that mean? Everyone is on the sidelines; this rebound is mainly driven by short-term capital.

Looking at the URPD data:
Between $104,500 and $112,000, there are 2.536 million BTC stacked;
In the $91,000 to $96,000 range, another 1.197 million are piled up.

My take? In the short term, there's definitely an oversold rebound vibe, and the short-term bullish sentiment might hold up for a while. If things go smoothly in the next two months, pushing for $103,000 isn't out of the question.

But on the flip side—what if it drops below $80,600? Then panic will spread like a virus, and that could be the signal that the bear market is knocking at the door.

However, even if we do enter a bear cycle, now that BTC and US stocks are more correlated, I doubt it'll crash as badly as before, and the recovery should be quicker too.

【From $5,000 to financial freedom, the truth I took 10 years to figure out】

Brothers, are you also constantly seeing those “100x in half a year”