Recently, with expectations of a US interest rate cut and a rate hike by the yen, there is extreme divergence on the macro front, and the entire market is in an exceptionally cautious state. Last night, US stocks opened lower but closed higher, coupled with some comments from Trump. Bitcoin and Ethereum both broke out upward from their consolidation ranges. Although both have shown some performance at the current open, they still haven't formed a reversal structure. Currently, Bitcoin is at 94,000 and Ethereum at 3,350; if effective resistance forms at these levels, a period of pullback and adjustment to retest the 90,000 level for Bitcoin and the 3,160-3,220 support range for Ethereum would be a healthier move before another upward trend.

At present, the market is heavily influenced by news, and technicals are somewhat distorted. The Fed rate cut at 3:00 tonight is almost certain and has largely been priced in by the market. However, Powell’s tone during his speech at 3:30 will be the real key to market direction. Additionally, the scale of the yen rate hike on the 19th is also critically important.