There’s a pretty crucial hearing today—the US Trade Representative has started collecting opinions on the 2026 renegotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

This is no small matter. In terms of total import and export volume, Mexico and Canada are the US’s top two trading partners. The current situation is that Canada has gotten quite a few exemptions, while things keep getting delayed with Mexico. But what if the negotiations break down next year? Or what if they go really badly?

Inflation might really become impossible to bring down. After all, the trade volume among these three countries is huge, and any hiccup in the process will hit people’s wallets. Next year’s trade outlook largely depends on the outcome of this renegotiation.