#美联储联邦公开市场委员会决议 the Federal Reserve basically locked in a 25 basis point rate cut tonight - this is the third time in 2025, pushing the federal funds rate to the range of 4.25%-4.5%. To be honest, the market has already digested this matter, and the action of cutting interest rates itself will not overturn the table.

The real variables are in two places.

The first is the new version of the dot matrix. In September last year, the Fed was still saying that it would only cut interest rates once in 2026, and this time it is likely to change its mouth - it may become twice, or it may be maintained once or twice, anyway, the overall will be much more conservative than the current market expectations (many people are still dreaming of three or four cuts in 2026). This is a typical hawkish interest rate cut - it seems to have fallen, but the words are saying don't think too beautifully, and it won't come back so soon.

The second is what Powell said at the press conference. He will most likely emphasize that inflation has not fully returned to the 2% target, and although the job market is stable, there is no hard damage, and the current policy stance is basically close to neutral. Listen up, he will most likely say that the future rhythm will depend on the data, and the speed will slow down, and it may even be suspended in the first half of 2026.

For traders, this becomes an old drama. In the short term, the good news of interest rate cuts has been fulfilled, but the room for interest rate cuts in 2026 has been cut off. As a result, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are prone to rebounding, and risk assets such as Bitcoin and U.S. stocks have become a roller coaster - first rising and then diving.

Specific to Bitcoin, if it really jumps to 94,000 as soon as the statement comes out, it is basically a false breakthrough of bluffing. It is normal to step back to 90,000 behind, and you don't even need to be too surprised if it falls to 88,000.

So tonight's routine is: get in the car to buy expectations, ship and sell facts. It is enough to save some ammunition for yourself and keep your eyes on Powell's mouth.