2025-12-10 05:40:53

#美联储联邦公开市场委员会决议 Fed's interest rate decision was released at 3 a.m. Beijing time tonight, and the market expects a third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut, locking interest rates in the range of 3.5%-3.75%. But the key is that this rate cut carries a "hawkish" knife - the official tone has hinted that this may be the last time, and there is basically no hope of another cut.

On the surface, it is releasing water, but in fact it is tightening expectations. While cutting interest rates to stabilize the market while raising the threshold for subsequent interest rate cuts, this contradictory policy posture is tearing the Fed apart.

Four tipping points are worth paying attention to:

Every word Powell said at the press conference can affect the currency market and the stock market. Goldman Sachs has issued an early warning that if the wording of the statement becomes more cautious, the room for subsequent interest rate cuts will be directly closed.

The vote was divided like never before. The chairman of the Kansas Fed has confirmed his opposition, and the St. Louis Fed boss may also vote against, and some even advocate a direct 50 basis point cut, and the degree of internal division is beyond imagination.

Inflation and employment data have become obstacles. Core PCE is still stuck at 2.8%, well above the 2% target, while the pace of hiring has plummeted and a wave of layoffs has arrived, and the Fed is in a dilemma, with compromises hidden behind every decision.

The balance sheet reduction has stopped for only four months, but there are signs that bond purchases may resume. After the official announcement of the halt to balance sheet reduction in October, market liquidity pressure began to emerge, and the Fed may quietly increase bond purchases to stabilize the situation.

The currency circle has started early, and the recent gains of BTC and ETH confirm the market's desire for easing policies. Tonight's Fed decision will be a watershed moment. What do you think, whether BTC can break through 110,000 after the interest rate cut is implemented, or face pullback pressure.

BTC-2.8%

ETH-5.07%

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AllInDaddy

· 16h ago

Powell opens his mouth and the crypto market trembles; let's see how he spins the story this time Last interest rate cut? Uh... I bet my entire BTC holdings will be crushed by that statement The Fed’s internal conflicts are so intense, yet it’s actually a good thing? Just a wild punch that accidentally hits the master 110,000? Wake up, brother, first secure 100,000 before talking nonsense Reducing the balance sheet for four months and then buying bonds again? Isn’t this just a disguised form of liquidity injection? Why hide it? --- Feeling that the 110,000 target is a bit greedy, it would be good if the rate cut expectations can keep the market from falling Every time Powell talks, I think of my stop-loss order... Restarting bond purchases is more valuable than anything else The watershed? Honestly, it’s still a bet on Powell’s words Internal voting is so chaotic, it really confirms the doomsday theory...

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ChainSpy

· 12-10 06:10

The combination of hawkish interest rate cuts feels like a smoke bomb, and it is actually paving the way for subsequent interest rate hikes. The last hint is already clear, and this wave of bottom-buying must be done as soon as possible. Powell opened his mouth, and we had to fluctuate, which was really a bit tiring. BTC 110,000? Let's first see what Brother Bao said tonight, the words are too eagle may be smashed directly. The internal division to this extent shows that the Fed is also panicking, which is the biggest benefit. The signs of the resumption of bond purchases are just around the corner, and the Fed will definitely not be able to bear the liquidity. Instead of guessing whether BTC can break 11, pay attention to how "gentle" Powell's wording is. This resolution feels like the final carnival, and there may really be no interest rate cuts later. It is true that the currency circle starts early, but being able to hold on is the key, and a pullback is inevitable. In a dilemma, any wording of the Fed hides a trap, and you have to listen to the sound behind the strings.

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Rugpull幸存者

· 12-10 06:01

It's the rhythm of Powell's harsh words again, this time it may really be the last time, and I have to wait until next year if I want to cut leeks again. This wave of interest rate cuts feels like it is to take over, and the Fed is fighting as fiercely as the currency circle. 110,000? I think let's talk about it after 10.5 first, don't be too greedy. The Fed's swaying from side to side feels more entangled than mine. If the balance sheet is reduced for four months and then buy bonds, this operation will go bankrupt for everyone. Anyway, I saw the real chapter at 3 a.m., and I won't sleep tonight. Goldman Sachs' warning wording has become cautious and will close interest rate cuts? What is this implying... The currency market has risen, where else can it jump, unless Powell suddenly changes his mind. I have never seen such a split vote, 50 basis points and 25 basis points are advocated, and the Fed is about to break up. It would be good if BTC could break 110,000 in this wave, and I think the pressure of the pullback is quite large.

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BearMarketBuyer

· 12-10 06:01

Hawkish rate cuts? Isn't this just a false shot, trying to please everyone, but everyone is offended. BTC breaks through 110,000? Let's see what Powell says tonight, one sentence can go from heaven to hell. The Fed is fighting internally, and we are hanging here... This wave of operations is really outrageous, the release of water and tightening, and it is not easy for the currency circle to give a reaction. Four months of balance sheet reduction and want to buy bonds? Do you still want face? Liquidity pressure is coming up really fast. 110,000? Wake up, let's see if we can stabilize 100,000 yuan first. It's really hard to predict, depending on the tone of the launch. The hawkish flavor is too strong, I think it will smash the market. If the Kansas guys oppose it, just oppose it, the internal division shows that the problem is big. The resumption of bond purchases is the real signal, which no one pays attention to but has a huge impact. The last rate cut? How to play later, how to live on the day coin that does not fall...

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GasWaster69

· 12-10 05:53

Powell's mouth cannon is really fierce enough, a sentence can drop two thousand yuan, and the knife is hidden deeply Last rate cut? Ha, we've seen this routine too many times, and the Fed is always changing its mind BTC rushed to 110,000? Let's see what we say tonight, don't be scared by Goldman Sachs The internal vote is divided into this, and you still want to cut interest rates later? What a dream The liquidity gap is coming again, maybe it will have unlimited QE, which is really a joke Interest rate cut + tightening expectations? Isn't this just wanting to eat two bowls of rice, the coin market has pitted this set of tricks that combine virtual and real for several rounds

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FancyResearchLab

· 12-10 05:51

Powell's mouth should be feasible in theory, but in fact it is playing with words - the knife of interest rate cuts is coated with honey, and the currency circle is still licking stupidly.

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GasFeeCryer

· 12-10 05:49

Powell's mouth is really more powerful than the chart... Bet at 3 a.m. tonight? --- The last knife? Then the first two knives were in vain, so what kind of hawk is there now? --- The Fed's internal votes have been divided, and this resolution may be reversed one day, and the psychology of holding currency must be well built --- 110,000? Think beautifully... The callback is the main course haha --- Four months of balance sheet reduction and debt purchases? I'm tired of this capricious routine --- PCE stuck at 2.8 and want to drop again? The Fed is playing a double reed --- The currency circle rose in advance, and this wave doesn't look real... Usually it is like this --- The wave of job layoffs is coming, inflation has not yet been suppressed, and the Fed is really pinched --- Powell's wording became cautious, and Goldman Sachs blew the whistle, feeling that it had to look at Wall Street's face every time --- Cutting interest rates but saying it is the last time, isn't this a hint that interest rates will have to be raised later... What are you doing?

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