#BTC Analyze within days

1️⃣ Structural interpretation The high volatility before macro events seems to have gotten rid of the weak pattern, but the real bulls are still a bull trap, and they need to wait for the end of the Fed's speech to be determined. We only need to pay attention to whether it is a hawkish speech or a dovish speech.
2️⃣ Capital flow & on-chain & exchange dynamics Macro and institutional views: JPMorgan's latest report pointed out that Bitcoin's recent pullback is "meaningful but not bearish", emphasizing that the bull market cycle is not over and that the possibility of an 80% deep retracement has been significantly reduced due to the introduction of ETFs. This provides the market with long-term confidence support from traditional finance. Capital Flow (Short-term Pressure): In the week ending December 7, the US Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net outflow of approximately $87.77 million. This shows that before the resolution, some institutional funds chose to temporarily take profits or wait and see, which diverged from the rebound in prices, and should be vigilant. On-chain data (neutral weak): Recent data shows that the market is still dominated by short-term participants, and overall confidence repairs are uneven. The slowdown in net outflows from exchanges means that the sentiment of eager withdrawals for safe-haven has been suspended, and the market has entered a state of waiting.
3️⃣ Give up the game with the idea of making orders during the day, and focus on wait-and-see. If 95000-96000, there is a clear combination of stagnant candlesticks (such as double top, bearish engulfing) in this area, and a weak situation is found, we can consider going short. Stop loss 96,000 body break, near 85,000.
4️⃣ Risk warning Macro resolution "black swan" risk: This is the only and biggest risk today. A hawkish signal from the Fed to pause interest rate cuts or inflation concerns would completely reverse the current rally, potentially leading to another decline towards the $85,000 area. High leverage long-short double-kill risk: A liquidation of more than $400 million indicates that the market is extremely vulnerable. When the resolution is announced, no matter which direction it fluctuates, it may trigger chain liquidations, forming a short-term extreme market. "Buy expectations, sell facts" risk: The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut. Once the resolution is in line with expectations but there is no more dovish guidance, the good news will lead to the collective closure of profit orders, causing prices to rise and fall.