BTC has just stood firm at the 100,000 mark, ETH has also touched the 4,000 threshold, and while the market is still digesting this wave of gains, the real drama is actually at 3 a.m. Beijing time tonight - the Federal Reserve is about to announce a new round of interest rate decisions.

A 25 basis point rate cut is basically a certainty, but what is interesting is that there is a lot of internal quarrel. The doves said that the employment data was weakening and had to be relaxed quickly; The hawks are even more angry, feeling that inflation is not controlled at all, and it is time to stop after a drop. So this time it is likely to be a strange situation: on the surface, interest rate cuts will actually be welded to death at the press conference, clearly telling the market "don't think about next time".

The most interesting thing to watch tonight is actually the dot plot. Two Fed chairmen have publicly opposed interest rate cuts, and some have suggested a direct 50 basis point cut. This degree of division is rare in history. Goldman Sachs has already given a precautionary shot in advance, saying that the wording of the statement may become more cautious, and the threshold for future interest rate cuts will be significantly raised.

Another point that is easily overlooked is balance sheet operations. Just stopped shrinking in October, and now there are signs that bond purchases may be restarted. This "implicit release" may have a more severe impact on liquidity than a direct interest rate cut.

It's a delicate moment for the crypto market. Expectations of interest rate cuts have long been speculated into prices, and now it depends on whether Powell will suddenly throw out hawkish signals. Is it to take advantage of the opportunity to take profits, or to use this interest rate cut as fuel for the second phase of the bull market? I will see you in the early morning tonight.