The Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut this time may seem like a warm gesture to the market on the surface, but a closer look at the dot plot and inflation data shows that things are not that simple.

First, let's discuss the immediate benefits: lowering the interest rate to the 4.75%-5.00% range will indeed loosen liquidity somewhat. According to historical volatility patterns, BTC and ETH might experience short-term fluctuations of around ±8%. If you're considering dollar-cost averaging, you might want to target pullback levels—BTC between $58,000 and $62,000, ETH between $3,100 and $3,400—these are relatively reasonable entry points.

But here’s the problem: the Fed's rate cut expectations for next year have been sharply curtailed, core PCE inflation remains above 2.8%, and the unemployment rate is rising. What does this combination mean? Policies could change at any time; the current easing might only be temporary.

How to respond? Portfolio strategies should be balanced. The main allocation(about 60%) should still focus on mainstream assets like BTC and ETH, which form the fundamentals. The remaining 40% can consider two directions: one, look for ecosystem protocols with TVL over $5 million, choosing projects supported by real locked-in data; two, participate in small swing opportunities, but with careful control of position size and stop-loss.

Finally, a reminder: meme coins with high leverage and alt projects lacking fundamentals are most likely to be abandoned during capital rotations. Never chase the peak during such times. The market offers opportunities but also lays traps—be sure to see clearly before taking action.