The market has been declining for a month, and retail investors are almost scared to death by the words "hawkish." At this moment, Tom Lee has come out to oppose the trend.

His logic is actually quite simple and straightforward: market sentiment is already extremely bad, and it's during such times that black swans are more likely to appear. When pessimism reaches the extreme, it often signals a turning point.

The current situation is quite delicate. Here are some possible scenarios:

🔥 Several scripts tonight

This is not a simple binary choice between rise and fall, but rather several completely different routes competing:

**Tom Lee's reversal logic**: Market expectations have bottomed out; as long as the news isn't particularly bad, a technical rebound could be triggered. If the US stock market rises, BTC is likely to follow.

**Three more realistic directions**:

• The most probable scenario — rate cuts but with a tough stance. The key is whether Powell will stick to his words. If his wording leaves room for maneuver, the market can still be manipulated. But beware of the "pull up first, then smash down" tactic.

• Ultra-dovish expectations: If this comes true, reaching 100,000 USD for BTC is not a dream, and altcoins will go wild.

• Directly flipping the table (extremely low probability): Dare to pause rate cuts? The market will tell you what reality looks like with a plunge, but such a possibility is very slim.

💥 The fundamental issue remains

Honestly, these surface fluctuations can't conceal two core risks:

The first is...(To be continued)

At this point, the game between sentiment and expectations is more critical than the data itself.