Friends who have been watching the market in recent days must have noticed that the entire screen is filled with discussions about the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. Statements like "historic turning point," "beginning of a bull market," and various voices are creating a noisy atmosphere. However, to be brutally honest: if you are still hoping to profit from this policy wave now, you are probably overestimating — because the main course of this feast was already divided up by smart money a few weeks ago.

After being in this circle for a long time, one thing becomes clear: the market always moves ahead of the news. Mainstream cryptocurrencies surged from around $80,000 to $94,000, seemingly due to technical breakthroughs, but in reality, it's investors betting wildly on the "rate cut expectations." When the policy actually materializes, if you only react at that moment to rush in, you're basically just riding the coattails of early birds.

Here, I must mention a fact that may surprise many: the rate cut meeting yesterday is not actually the most noteworthy focus right now. The real storm may be triggered next week by signals of rate hikes from the Bank of Japan! Don't underestimate this move; its impact on global liquidity is, in some ways, even more intense than the Federal Reserve's actions.

Friends who like to review history should still remember the Asian financial crisis of 1998. Back then, Japan ended its long-standing ultra-low interest rate environment, which was like knocking over the first domino — the entire Asian financial chain broke one after another, with exchange rates collapsing and asset prices plunging. The scene is still frightening to recall. Some may say, that was almost thirty years ago; does it still work? To tell the truth: this operational mechanism is still in effect today, only with a more concealed disguise.

Let's break down the underlying logic: over the years, the favorite trick of international capital is called "carry trade" — simply put, borrowing money from low-interest-rate countries and then investing in high-yield markets to earn the spread. Japan has been the world's biggest "ATM" for years, with countless institutions financing in yen. But once the Bank of Japan actually raises interest rates, the cost of these borrowed funds skyrockets, and highly leveraged funds will be forced to rapidly close positions and return, and at that point... the real show is just beginning.

So, at this moment, instead of foolishly rejoicing over the already implemented rate cut policy, it’s better to pay attention to the movements of the yen. The market will never clearly write opportunities in official announcements; true turning points often hide in corners that are easy to overlook.