The market's deadliest trait isn't a sharp decline, but rather a pattern that looks like it's about to take off, only to actually be digging a hole—today DOGE is playing this game.

I took a quick look at a 4-hour chart on a certain exchange this morning. That weak little positive candle paired with the surrounding pattern looked very suspicious. The chart shows a classic bearish ABCD structure, and the price is currently hitting the D point—just at the most impulsive "breakout point." Someone was still shouting in the group yesterday that "a simple tweet from Musk can send it flying," but looking at the fund flow: 2.42 million net outflow. If it were really going to rally, would large investors be dumping chips like this?

This scene feels familiar. In October last year, DOGE experienced a similar situation—forming a pattern at the high point, everyone waiting for a breakout, only for a single bearish candle the next day to wipe out the late buyers, trapping them for at least half a month.

From a technical perspective, the situation is even clearer: the MACD histogram has shrunk a bit, but the DIF line is still below the DEA and hasn't turned upward; the RSI remains stuck at 42, a weak zone that doesn't clearly signal up or down; even more aggressive, the KDJ has dropped close to 10. This combination isn't a sign of a rally; it more resembles a bearish market taking a breather before the next move.

On the news front, things are a bit lively—old rumors that "Tesla may support DOGE for payments" are being revisited and hyped again. But if you actually look at the on-chain data...

(By the way, the data that follows is even more interesting, but you'll have to see if you're willing to face reality.)