#美联储联邦公开市场委员会决议 Rumors are flying everywhere, claiming that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates on December 19, and that a big script is needed — arbitrage funds are expected to collectively flee, and the global financial order might be thrown into chaos. People are feeling nervous.

I decided to look at the data. Japan's current rate hike cycle started in 2024, pushing from -0.1% up to 0.25%, then in January this year raising again to 0.5%. That's four rate hikes already. Sounds like a lot, right? But the problem is — interest rates are still ridiculously low.

More importantly, this rate hike process has been ongoing for nearly two years. If arbitrage funds were really going to run, they should have exited during the first or second rate hikes. Why wait until now? That logic doesn’t add up.

Some industry estimates suggest that in the event of a large-scale capital outflow, the scale would be around 2 trillion yuan. But looking at the size of the global financial market, 2 trillion yuan is negligible. In other words, it's a drop in the bucket.

So, don’t get caught up in the wave of anxiety. The market noise is overwhelming, and people tend to treat every piece of news as gospel. The most reliable approach is to do your own research, look at the fundamentals, and avoid being a cloud player. True investors need to have independent judgment.