This morning (around 10 to 13 Beijing time), the global financial markets are waiting for a big news from Japan: is there really going to be a "rate hike"?

The market almost bets on it will increase (probability 94%), just like waiting for a shoe to drop. Now everyone is not really arguing about "whether to raise rates or not," but rather "after this hike, will there be continued aggressive increases?" That is the core of the disagreement.

So the key question is: will Japan's rate hike cause the global markets (including the crypto space) to collapse?

The answer is: unlikely in the short term. Because this has been discussed and digested by the market for half a year, it’s not considered a "sudden shock." The truly frightening thing would be an "unexpected" event, but this time everyone is prepared.

However, this is indeed a "weather vane." It marks the beginning of the tightening by the last major economy that has maintained ultra-low interest rates. In the long run, the era of "cheap money" for global capital is gradually fading. For high-risk assets, more caution will be needed in the future.

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