$ETH Core Situation Assessment: Is it "Bottoming" or "Downtrend Continuation"?

• Short-term Support Confirmation: ETH rebounded near $2,962, indicating strong long buy orders and short covering in this range.
• Indicator Recovery Needs: 15-minute/1-hour KDJ is in oversold territory. Technically, a rebound is needed to digest the sharp decline’s divergence.
• Trend Determination: Rebound rather than reversal. Overall, the 4-hour and daily charts remain bearish. Therefore, the next strategy is: short at high levels > support levels for short-term gains.
Re-establish short positions at high levels (main strategy, aligned with medium-term trend)
The next ideal second short entry point will slightly shift downward:
• First Resistance Zone: $3,010 - $3,025 (1-hour Bollinger middle band).
• Second Resistance Zone: $3,040 - $3,055 (near the early morning drop point).
• If the price rebounds to around $3,025 and an upper shadow appears, re-enter short positions (position size can be half of previous).
• Stop-loss: set at $3,075 (must stop if breaking previous high).
• Take-profit: look back to $2,950, the area of heavy long liquidation.
3. Christmas Eve Risk/Opportunity Weighting
• 24-hour Risk: If it falls below $2,950, it will trigger the previously calculated $850 million long liquidation. The market will drop vertically, directly targeting $2,880.
• Christmas Market: Historically, before Christmas (23-24), there are often "baiting shorts" followed by a rally.
Core Observation: Look for the "Golden Pit"
Liquidity Hunt (High Probability Insertion for Long Positions)
• Optimal Entry Zone: $2,880 - $2,915
• Logic: * Dense Liquidation Zone: The $2,950 mentioned earlier is just the first line of defense. The final defense and dense liquidation zone for bulls is around $2,880 - $2,900.
• Daily Support: Refer to the daily candlestick; the lower Bollinger band is currently extending upward, forming strong support around $2,880.
• Operational Advice: Do not place orders directly; wait for the price to rapidly volume spike and break below $2,950, then quickly reduce volume or see a 15-minute long lower shadow, and enter at market price.
• Stop-loss: $2,840 (breaking below the previous low essentially ends the Christmas rally).
• Target: look back to $3,050.
Confirm Reversal (Right-side Safe Long Entry)
• Entry Confirmation Zone: $3,035 - $3,045 (after stabilization)
• Logic: * Breakthrough Resistance: The starting point of this decline was around $3,060. If the price recovers above $3,030 and stabilizes on the 1-hour chart, it indicates the breakdown was a "Bear Trap."
• Christmas Rally Initiation: Stabilizing here usually marks the official start of the Christmas rally, targeting $3,300.
• Stop-loss: $2,990.
• Target: $3,200 - $3,350.
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