The Mexican market that surprises in 2025: Why are Mexican companies listed on the stock exchange dragging down profits?

If there is something that has drawn attention this year, it is the unexpected performance of the Mexican stock market. While major U.S. indices remain flat or in the red, the S&P/BMV IPC has accumulated a gain of close to 21.7% in the last 12 months, leaving Wall Street behind. How is this possible? The answer lies in how Mexican companies listed on the stock exchange are acting and in the winds of change blowing in the region.

A small but concentrated market: The Mexican Stock Exchange in numbers

The Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) is the second largest in Latin America and the fifth in the American continent. Although it may seem large, the reality is that only 145 Mexican companies are listed there, making it a relatively small market compared to its economy. However, what it lacks in quantity it makes up for with power concentration.

The S&P/BMV IPC, the main index reflecting the performance of these Mexican listed companies, is composed of only 35 companies. But here’s the interesting part: just 10 of them account for 71.6% of the index’s weight. The index has been reviewed twice a year since its launch in October 1978 and is weighted by market capitalization.

Key index data:

• Average capitalization: 221.939 billion MXN
• Largest capitalization: 1,279.282 billion MXN
• 1-year return: 29%
• 5-year return: 15% annually
• 10-year return: 6.44% annually

The dominant sectors are consumer staples (30.9%), materials (26.2%), and industrial (12.3%), reflecting the nature of the Mexican economy.

The five champions moving the market

When talking about Mexican companies listed on the stock exchange with real weight, these five names are unavoidable. Together, they represent 44.2% of the entire market capitalization of the BMV, and concentrate 55.8% of the main index. They are the pillars on which the market rests.

Walmart de México: The retail giant

Walmart de México SAB de CV is the jewel of the retail sector. With a market capitalization of 1.10 trillion MXN, it controls warehouses, hypermarkets, supermarkets, and clubs throughout Central America since its founding in 1958.

In the second quarter of 2025, sales reached 246,253.8 million pesos, an increase compared to 227,415.1 million from the previous year. However, net profit fell to 11,226.9 million compared to 12,510.1 million in 2Q24. Barron’s maintains a “overweight” recommendation for this company.

• Price range: $61.43 - $63.97
• Annual range: $50.79 - $67.34
• PER: 21.86
• Dividend yield: 3.83%

América Móvil: Telecommunications at a global scale

América Móvil, based in Mexico but operating in 23 countries across America and Europe, is the largest telecommunications company on the American continent and the seventh worldwide. With over 323 million users, it dominates mobile telephony, advertising, call centers, and communication towers.

In the third quarter of 2025, it recorded revenues of 232,920 million MXN (year-over-year growth of 4.2%) and a net income of 22,700 million MXN. Analysts at Investing.com maintain a “Buy” recommendation.

• Market capitalization: 70.75 billion USD
• Price range: $32,800 - $35,160
• Annual range: $15,675 - $40,000

Grupo México: Mining and transportation with global reach

Founded in 1978, Grupo México operates in three divisions: Minera México (the third largest copper producer in the world), Transport (largest railway fleet in Mexico), and Infrastructure. It is a conglomerate with 1.27 trillion MXN in market capitalization.

In the third quarter of 2025, revenues grew 11% to 4.59 billion dollars, while net income surged more than 50%, reaching 1.29 billion dollars. The consensus among analysts indicates a target price of 149.42 MXN.

• Price range: $158.68 - $162.51
• Annual range: $91.08 - $167.85
• PER: 17.71
• Dividend yield: 2.71%

FEMSA: The largest Coca-Cola bottler in the world

Fomento Económico Mexicano (FEMSA), founded in 1890 in Monterrey, is an empire in beverages, retail, restaurants, and pharmacies. As the largest Coca-Cola bottler worldwide, it operates in 17 countries with a strong presence in Latin America.

In the third quarter of 2025, revenues grew 9.1% to 214,638 million pesos, although net income fell 36.8% to 5,838 million due to exchange losses and financial expenses. Analysts maintain a “Buy” recommendation.

• Market capitalization: 583.28 billion MXN
• Price range: $174.48 - $180.00
• Annual range: $156.00 - $212.11
• PER: 38.85
• Dividend yield: 7.4%

Banorte: The second-largest bank in the country

Grupo Financiero Banorte, founded in 1992, is the second of the four largest banks in Mexico and Latin America. With 22 million clients, over 1,000 branches, and 7,000 ATMs, it offers comprehensive services: savings accounts, credit cards, loans, mortgages, and retirement fund management.

In the third quarter of 2025, it reported a net result of 13,008 million pesos (down 9% year-over-year). Barron’s maintains a “Overweight” recommendation.

• Market capitalization: 534.70 billion MXN
• Price range: $178.03 - $186.44
• Annual range: $131.60 - $187.29
• PER: 9.02
• Dividend yield: 7.30%

The context: Why Mexico is winning in 2025

The surprise of the year comes from the southern side of the border, and it is no coincidence. Despite the re-election of Donald Trump and the 25% tariffs applied to Mexican products, the market has shown a remarkable resilience.

Three factors explain this phenomenon:

1. Unstoppable nearshoring: The relocation of manufacturing from Asia to Mexico continues to accelerate, attracting constant foreign investment.

2. Strong domestic consumption: Unlike more vulnerable economies, domestic consumption in Mexico remains robust, supporting Mexican companies listed on the stock exchange like Walmart and FEMSA.

3. Controlled inflation: Inflation is around 3.5% annually, allowing the Bank of Mexico to start cutting rates and improving overall financial conditions.

4. Resilient peso: The exchange rate has shown stability, avoiding sharp depreciations and reducing pressures on operational costs.

The S&P/BMV IPC remains near 63,000-64,000 points, reflecting confidence in the country’s leading companies.

Investment opportunity: Rethinking the portfolio

For investors who have historically concentrated their assets in the United States, 2025 marks a turning point. While Wall Street moves slowly, Mexican listed companies are generating double-digit returns.

A balanced strategy can combine:

• Selective exposure to Mexican stocks (focusing on the five pillars mentioned)
• Presence in U.S. assets to maintain diversification
• Local bonds from both economies

This mix allows capturing performance differences and reducing business, monetary, and geopolitical risks. In a year of significant changes, ignoring the potential of the Mexican market could be a costly missed opportunity.

The Mexican Stock Exchange has ceased to be a secondary market: it is now a real destination for those seeking returns in 2025.