This 1-hour BTC chart reveals quite a few clues. Carefully examining it, the BOLL bands are already in a highly compressed state, with EMA and multiple MA lines tightly clustered together. This is a classic volatility compression signal, which has historically indicated an imminent significant breakout.

Although the MACD indicator is still below the zero line (DIF reading -154.3, DEA at -134.6), the key point is that the histogram has shrunk to -39.3, indicating that the bearish momentum is clearly weakening. The fast and slow lines are converging, and a bottom divergence on the hourly timeframe has already begun to form. The price is repeatedly being squeezed within a narrow range, with bulls and bears fiercely battling here.

On-chain data provides a more definitive signal. The BTC balance on exchanges has decreased by 2.3% over the past week, while whale addresses have accumulated over 8,000 coins in the last 24 hours, indicating that large investors are buying the dip. From the UTXO age distribution, long-term holdings over 1 year now account for 70%, showing that these steadfast believers remain unmoved. Hash rate has stabilized at a historical high, demonstrating strong network resilience. The on-chain fundamentals are very solid—every dip could be a good opportunity to accumulate.

From a macro perspective, the dovish expectations released by the Federal Reserve in early 2026 are taking effect. The inversion of the US Treasury yield curve is easing, boosting investors’ risk appetite. Spot ETFs have seen continuous net inflows for 15 days, and institutional FOMO is brewing beneath the surface. There are no black swan events in regulation for now, and market liquidity remains ample.

Overall, the probability of an upward breakout should exceed 70%. This consolidation phase is nearing its end. Once the hourly chart breaks out with volume above the upper resistance (focusing on the previous high-density zones), it will trigger a wave of buying, with potential gains of +8% to +12%. Even if there is an unexpected breakdown below support, the on-chain accumulated funds will support the bottom, limiting the downside.

The trading strategy is to gradually build long positions near the current price, placing stop-loss orders below support levels, and adding to positions once a breakout occurs.