In 2026, the New Year's start in the crypto market was volatile, with Bitcoin losing the $89,000 level and dropping as low as $87,200. Ethereum struggled below $3,000, and small to mid-cap coins generally fell over 2%. The total liquidation amount across the network in 24 hours exceeded $200 million, and retail investors' panic sentiment is spreading. The core logic has changed: the four-year halving cycle has failed, ETF reshapes capital flows, and the market is shifting from speculation-driven to institution-led "industrialization stage." Volatility and structural differentiation will be the main themes throughout the year.

Currently, macro and liquidity conditions are diverging: the Bank of Japan's rate hike has triggered global liquidity tightening, with short-term ETF capital outflows. However, Vanguard has opened crypto ETF trading, and the RWA market has surpassed $20 billion, indicating that institutions are still quietly positioning. The Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 27 in the "extreme fear" zone, and historical data shows that when this zone coincides with positive fundamentals, it often presents high-probability entry opportunities.

Retail trading core guidelines:

1. Positioning Rule: Use only 5% of idle funds to participate, strictly avoid leverage, and prevent short-term volatility from liquidating positions.

2. Asset Selection: Focus on mainstream coins like BTC and ETH, avoid obscure altcoins; pay special attention to RWA (tokenized US bonds, gold) and stablecoins, as these are the definite opportunities in 2026.

3. Trading Rhythm: Build positions in BTC in batches between $86,000 and $88,000; cut losses decisively if it falls below $85,000. For ETH, watch support at $2,900-$2,950; once it stabilizes above $3,100, lightly add to positions.

4. Risk Avoidance: Stay away from anonymous coins, choose compliant trading channels, and keep a close eye on the January US crypto regulatory hearing and Federal Reserve policy signals.

The market has bid farewell to reckless growth, with sentiment speculation giving way to value logic. Retail investors need not worry about short-term ups and downs but should seize structural opportunities and strictly adhere to risk management to survive and profit amid volatility. #GateCEO2025年终公开信