#a16z Assessment: By 2026, the prediction market will enter the "#AI Agent Trader" era

As someone building in this field, I can confirm:
This trend has already begun, not just a "future vision."
1️⃣ The number of contracts will explode exponentially
Prediction markets will no longer be limited to large events like "presidential elections."
Next will be:
Geopolitical micro-events
Corporate-level decisions (layoffs / mergers / legislation milestones)
On-chain parameter changes, protocol upgrades
"Range results" of macro data
The more fragmented the 👉 events are, the higher their pricing value.
2️⃣ Dispute resolution will inevitably become AI-driven
The only problem with human arbitration is: slow and not scalable.
The advantage of LLMs is not “judicial authority,” but:
Quickly aggregating multiple information sources
Providing traceable decision paths
Outputting structured, verifiable evidence chains
👉 AI does not replace consensus but accelerates its formation.
3️⃣ AI Agents will become the most powerful traders
The bottlenecks for human traders are:
Information intake speed
Emotional noise
Attention bandwidth
AI Agents can:
Scan public information 24/7
Compare market implied probabilities vs real-world signals in real-time
Continuously arbitrage on tiny mispricings
👉 Prediction markets are naturally suited for Agent participation.
4️⃣ Prediction markets ≠ enemies of polls
Polls ask “what do people think,”
Prediction markets look at “where the money is betting.”
The future structure will be:
Polls → Provide subjective signals
‍#预测市场 → Convert signals into prices
👉 Markets make polls more honest.
One-sentence conclusion
The essence of prediction markets is not gambling,
but a real-time pricing system for information.
When traders become AI,
world events will be priced continuously and automatically for the first time.
This is not just an upgrade of financial products,
but a reconstruction of information infrastructure.