#我的2026第一条帖 Non-Farm Payroll Data Sparks the Precious Metals Market: The Battle Between Bulls and Bears Behind Gold and Silver's High-Level Fluctuations

In the first trading week of 2026, the market was already brewing before the release of the non-farm payroll data. The sharp volatility in gold and silver signals an impending larger storm.
“The liquidity crisis: The shortened trading week during the New Year holiday in 2026 did not dampen market volatility. The CME frequently raised margin requirements in an attempt to 'cool down' the market proactively, but the rollercoaster行情 in the precious metals market at year-end is merely an intense prelude to policy interventions and macroeconomic shifts by both bulls and bears.
Despite some pullback, gold and silver still ended the year with their strongest annual gains since 1979. Behind this is the dollar index plummeting over 9% throughout the year (the largest decline in eight years), and the global geopolitical 'powder keg' being ignited one after another, creating a strong demand for safe-haven assets.
01 Market Under Currents Before Non-Farm Payroll Data
On the first full trading day of 2026, the financial markets experienced intense turbulence. Gold and silver prices plunged sharply, with spot gold temporarily losing the key integer level, and silver suffering even more severe declines.
This volatility is not just a simple price correction but a complete reshaping of market expectations. On the eve of the non-farm payroll data release, market sentiment shifted from New Year optimism to extreme panic.
The reason non-farm payroll data attracts so much attention is that it directly reflects the health of the US labor market, thereby influencing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction. Strong data could push the Fed to raise interest rates and boost the dollar; weak data might trigger easing policies and suppress the dollar.
This non-farm payroll report is particularly significant: it is the first 'normal' month’s data after the US government ended a record-breaking shutdown, and its accuracy is highly scrutinized. Market expectations are for an increase of 55,000 jobs, but the previous figure (November) was dramatically revised from a growth of 64,000 to a decrease of 105,000, a rare and substantial correction in historical records.
02 The Dilemma of Precious Metals Amidst Intertwined Bull and Bear Factors
The gold and silver markets are simultaneously facing fierce battles between bullish and bearish forces. The bullish side mainly stems from geopolitical risks and expectations of rate cuts, while the bearish pressure comes from technical adjustments and the dollar’s trend.
On the geopolitical front, US military actions against Venezuela have pushed this world’s largest oil reserve country into the global market spotlight. Once conflict erupts, gold’s 'hero in troubled times' attribute immediately becomes apparent. Amid global turmoil, the demand for gold as the ultimate safe-haven asset remains robust.
Regarding monetary policy, the market expects the Fed to continue cutting rates, further increasing gold’s appeal as an interest-free investment. After three consecutive rate cuts at the end of 2025, the Fed is deeply divided. On one side is inflation above target; on the other, a seemingly cooling labor market. This week’s non-farm payroll data will be a 'key vote' in deciding the timing of the Fed’s first rate cut in 2026.
Bearish factors should not be overlooked either. The exchange’s margin hikes have triggered technical sell-offs. COMEX gold futures for January delivery fell 4.40% for the week, and COMEX silver futures dropped 7.93%. Before the non-farm payroll data, this technical adjustment has already suppressed bullish momentum.
03 The Strange Switch in Market Sentiment and Capital Flows
Typically, geopolitical tensions or economic uncertainties boost gold’s safe-haven appeal. However, before the non-farm payroll data, the market’s trading logic has undergone a fundamental shift: capital is flowing from 'safe-haven gold' to 'safe-haven dollar.'
In the face of potentially strong economic data, the return expectations for dollar assets have overwhelmed gold’s hedging function. This sharp market preference shift from 'hard currency' to 'interest-bearing assets' is the core reason why silver (with its industrial and financial dual attributes) declined more than gold.
From the chart perspective, the decline in precious metals is accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume. This indicates that when prices break below key support levels, a large number of algorithmic stop-loss orders are triggered, causing liquidity to evaporate instantly and sell orders to flood out like an avalanche. This 'kill-the-bull' stampede intensifies the downward slope, reflecting the extreme fragility of current bullish confidence.
Previously, gold prices remained high largely due to speculative net long holdings. As negative data hits, this hot money is rapidly exiting the market. Speculators are frantically reducing risk exposure, and market sentiment indicators have quickly shifted from 'greed' to 'extreme fear.'
04 The Future of Precious Metals After Non-Farm Payroll Data
For the precious metals market, the impact of non-farm payroll data may vary. If the data is strong, gold could be pressured by a strengthening dollar; if weak, it could boost gold’s safe-haven demand.
Bart Melek, Head of Global Commodity Strategy at TD Securities, said: “The market is still buzzing about the possibility of a Fed rate cut in March, and there may be another rate cut within the year... Coupled with concerns over tariffs, ongoing US debt discussions, and geopolitical risks, these factors collectively support higher prices for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium.”
On the technical side, Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, predicts: “The next upside target for bullish gold futures in February is to close above the key resistance level at the contract’s all-time high of $4,584 per ounce.” Under strong fundamental support (geopolitical safe-haven + rate cut expectations), the short-term technical correction caused by margin hikes can be viewed as a healthy consolidation.
In terms of trading strategy, it is recommended to adopt a phased approach of buying on dips at support levels rather than chasing highs, and to use geopolitical developments as an important basis for position management. Maintaining stability above key support zones is the foundation for a new upward trend.
As the first non-farm payroll data of 2026 is released, the precious metals market stands at a crossroads. Bears believe that a 'soft landing' or even 'no landing' for the US economy is inevitable, with high interest rates becoming the norm, exerting long-term valuation pressure on gold. Bulls insist that, in the long run, issues like global debt, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks have not disappeared, and a sharp decline may be a correction of future expectations.
Regardless of which view prevails, market sentiment is already extremely sensitive. The market’s performance after the non-farm payroll data will determine the direction of the precious metals market in early 2026. Staying calm amid turbulence and finding the main theme amid contradictions is the key to investors’ success.