Ethereum Outlook Q1/2026: Setting a Historic Support Level for Breakthrough Scenario Above $4,000

As Ethereum approaches key resistance zones, many analysts believe the market is repeating a familiar historical pattern – where year-end weakness often serves as a springboard for a strong rally in the first quarter of the following year. If this scenario repeats, ETH could easily surpass the $4,000 mark in Q1/2026. Year-End Weakness: Not a Warning, but a Stepping Stone Earlier this week, Ethereum broke above the $3,200 level for the first time in nearly a month, recording a 4-week high of $3,259. In just a few days, ETH has increased by over 8.3% from the $3,000 zone, while maintaining stability above $3,100 throughout the weekend. Currently, ETH is making efforts to turn the $3,200 zone from resistance into support, a move of great significance in terms of trend structure. In this context, analyst Niels shared an interesting perspective on X (Twitter), suggesting that Ethereum closing Q4 in the red “is not as pessimistic as many think.” According to data from CoinGlass: ETH decreased 28.28% in Q4/2025This is Ethereum’s worst Q4 in 6 yearsIt is also the first time ETH closed Q4 in the red since 2022This decline is comparable to Q4/2019 (-28.9%) However, rather than viewing this as a negative reversal signal, Niels emphasized: “History shows a very interesting story: every time Ethereum ends Q4 in the red, the following Q1 closes in the green.” He believes that year-end weakness often acts as a ‘reset’ process rather than a long-term trend reversal. Historical Data: Q1 Always a Recovery Quarter for Ethereum Niels analyzed that: year-end leverage liquidation, market sentiment cooling down, speculative capital withdrawing, … often help Ethereum start the new year on a “cleaner” footing, creating conditions for sustainable growth. In the past, similar phases have helped ETH record quarterly gains of up to 52% in Q1. “If this pattern continues, then the recent Q4 is not a warning – but rather a setup for Q1.” Ethereum Faces a Critical Zone: Breakout or Continue Accumulation? From a short-term technical perspective, analyst Ted Pillows believes ETH is entering the most important resistance zone in nearly two months. Since early November, Ethereum has been “trapped” within the $2,700 – $3,400 range, with repeated failures around: $3,000$3,200 Currently, ETH has regained the middle of this range, and the next task is: maintain the upward momentumturn the $3,300 – $3,400 zone into support According to Ted Pillows: “If Ethereum successfully reclaims this zone, the price could be pushed quickly toward $3,800 – $4,000, where the next major resistance awaits.” Conversely, if rejected at this area, ETH could retest the $3,000 zone, risking prolonged accumulation within the two-month price range. Symmetrical Triangle Pattern: Ethereum “Compressing” for a 30% Breakout Another perspective from analyst Ali Martinez points out that Ethereum has been forming a symmetrical triangle pattern since November. In this pattern: Price is squeezed between an upward trendline and a downward trendlineThe trading range is narrowing, indicating potential for a strong breakout Ali notes that symmetrical triangle patterns often lead to significant volatility of around 30% after a clear breakout. If ETH maintains the current breakout above the upper edge of the pattern, the next reasonable target would be around $4,000, opening the possibility of retesting Q3 price levels. Summary: Q1/2026 Could Be Ethereum’s Return to the Main Stage At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $3,253, up 3.4% for the day and over 11% for the week. Key factors summarized: Repeated pattern of red Q4 – green Q1Technical structure significantly improvingLong-term accumulation pattern nearing completionMarket sentiment gradually shifting to optimism → Q1/2026 could be a pivotal period for Ethereum, where the medium-term bullish trend is confirmed, and the $4,000 milestone is no longer a distant dream.

In the crypto market, big rewards often come to those who are patient while most are still doubtful. Ethereum seems to be standing right at that moment.