DOGE Reversal Truth: $0.15 Behind Whale Wars and Investor Traps🌟🔥🌟

After a cycle lasting over two months of "false rebound – crash," DOGE finally stabilized at the beginning of 2025. Since the temporary low at the end of December, DOGE has gained approximately 33% overall, marking its strongest rise since November of last year. But this time, technical indicators are not the decisive factor — the real game-changer is a silent internal war between whale armies.
Why did the reversal succeed? The answer is not in Japanese candlesticks but on the chain.
From November 4 to December 31, DOGE continued to record new lows, but the RSI indicator kept rising, forming a perfect bullish divergence structure. This was supposed to be a reliable reversal signal, but in previous instances when similar patterns appeared, the market quickly halted at the start of the rebound, with gains ranging only between 13% and 17%.
What’s the problem? The holdings.
The Medium Whale: From "Rebound then Crash" to "Stagnant Hold"
In the two previous failed rebound attempts, the "medium whales" holding between one million and ten million DOGE played the role of "market encircler" precisely:
• November 25: holdings decreased from 109.1 billion DOGE to 107.2 billion DOGE, and the market failed to rise
• December 21-22: holdings decreased from 108.6 billion DOGE to 107.9 billion DOGE, and the rebound failed again
But in the current reversal process, the market’s strongest force emerged and changed dramatically. Since December 31, their holdings increased from about 108.4 billion DOGE to 108.8 billion DOGE, a net increase of roughly 40 million DOGE, approximately $6 million worth. More importantly, they did not realize profits at the start of the rebound but chose to continue holding and slightly increase their holdings. This steady buying in the middle is what transformed the market from "day trading" to "sustainable trend."
Warning Signal: Divergence between the Giant Whale and Short Positions
However, success in the reversal does not mean the risks disappear. On the contrary, when you can clearly see the movements of the main forces, it often precedes a bigger storm.
Hidden Short Position Divergence: Momentum Dwindles
From mid-October to early January, DOGE’s price gradually declined, but the RSI peak kept rising, forming a "hidden bearish divergence." Unlike bullish divergence, this pattern usually appears during price increases, indicating that the price is still being pushed upward, but the upward momentum is waning, and selling pressure is gradually absorbing new demand. In other words, buyers are still exerting pressure but less efficiently.
The Giant Whale: Quietly Disappearing Selling Pressure of $1.3 Billion
Alongside technical indicators, the strongest on-chain force — the "Giant Whale" holding over a billion DOGE — has been actively reducing its positions since January 1. Their holdings dropped from about 726.8 billion DOGE to 718 billion DOGE, a net decrease of approximately 8.8 billion DOGE, equivalent to about $1.3 billion of supply entering the market.
This does not mean the market will change immediately, but when the hidden short divergence appears alongside the giant whale reducing its positions, the most common outcome is — weakening rebound momentum, not accelerating the trend. The current phase of risk can be more accurately described as "whale-led risk": medium whales are holding their positions, giant whales are selling, and retail investors cheer "the bullish market is returning quickly."
$0.151: The Critical Price Zone for Market Fate
Currently, technical indicators have become secondary, and the price itself is the most important signal. DOGE has failed multiple times around the $0.151 level, which has become a crucial dividing line between short-term bullish and bearish trends.
Scenario 1: Unstable above $0.151
The probability of correction increases significantly, with the first target at $0.137 ( roughly an 8% correction ). If this support fails, the structure will further reveal the $0.115 level. This trend will fully confirm the hidden short divergence and largely align with the continued reduction of giant whales’ positions.
Scenario 2: Actual breakout and daily close above $0.151
The impact of the bearish divergence will diminish, selling pressure will be absorbed by the market, and a potential rise up to $0.173 will open.
The Harsh Reality of 2025: MEME Coins Are No Longer a Game for Retail Investors
The DOGE story reflects the harsh reality of the 2025 crypto market: the pricing control of MEME coins has shifted entirely from retail investors to whales and hedge funds. After institutional positioning in Bitcoin and Ethereum, capital has begun to turn its attention to altcoins with lower liquidity and easier manipulation.
According to the latest Chainalysis data, large transactions ( over $100,000 ) in DOGE increased from 12% in 2023 to 38% in 2025, while small transactions ( under $1,000 ) decreased from 45% to 19%. Whales are no longer content with "scamming through charts" but have started to predict and deter retail movements through precise on-chain behavior analysis.
Ironically, while DOGE struggles at $0.15, the entire MEME coin sector is experiencing "structural divergence." PEPE achieved a weekly increase of 68% to reach a new high, and BONK attempted to replicate the 5x legend, but DOGE’s giant whales have begun to withdraw. This indicates that capital is shifting from "old MEME" to "new narrative MEME," and DOGE, as a relic of the previous cycle, may lose its "cultural uniqueness value."
In conclusion: Don’t be just liquidity moving between whales
This time, DOGE completed a true reversal, and the continuous holding by medium whales is the main factor sustaining the market. But at the same time, upward momentum is slowing, giant whales have already taken profits, and the price is under pressure around the central zone of $0.15.
The next trend does not depend on Musk’s tweets or retail FOMO but on its ability to hold above $0.151.
As a retail investor, you should be cautious not of "Will DOGE drop," but of "Are your buy orders being bought by medium whales preparing to give their holdings to the giant whales." When on-chain data shows a $1.3 billion sell-off, the slogan "the bullish market is returning quickly" sounds particularly disturbing.
Discussion Topic
How do you see whale behavior changing in DOGE?
A. Increasing medium whales is a decisive sign of reversal, and $0.15 must be broken
B. The retreat of giant whales is a warning sign, correction is imminent
C. DOGE is becoming outdated, and funding is shifting toward PEPE/BONK and other new MEME coins
✍️ Leave your choice + reason in the comments section
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Disclaimer: This article is based solely on on-chain data and technical analysis and does not constitute investment advice. MEME coins are highly volatile, so manage risks carefully and make cautious decisions.$BTC