Ever wonder where we actually stand in the AI cycle? One interesting lens: compare it to the US shale energy boom.

The shale revolution followed a predictable pattern—early hype, massive capital inflows, speculative peaks, followed by a brutal shakeout that wiped out weaker players. Only the strongest operators survived and went profitable.

AI looks eerily similar right now. Billions flowing in, everyone building, valuations reaching absurd levels. The question isn't whether we're in a bubble—clearly we are. The real question is: where in the cycle?

With shale, the peak euphoria lasted 5-7 years before reality hit. Infrastructure took time to build. Same with AI—the foundational compute, talent, and model improvements aren't overnight wins.

What changed post-shale? Survivors adapted, costs came down, efficiency improved, and profitable units eventually emerged from the wreckage.

History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. The AI space will consolidate. Hype will deflate. But unlike shale, we're not dealing with a commodity—AI is becoming infrastructure. That changes the end game.

Worth watching which players are actually building sustainable moats.