Gold analysis today, November 11: Upward trend supported by interest rate cut expectations

The Key Pillars of Gold’s Rise: From Weak Data to Monetary Policy Expectations

The gold market is today experiencing rapid movement toward levels of $4,137 per ounce, driven by the simultaneous influence of two main factors: first, weak US economic data revealing declines in government and retail sectors and consumer confidence falling to its lowest in three and a half years (50.3 points), and second, rising expectations of interest rate cuts at the upcoming December meeting. According to CME FedWatch indicators, investors are now pricing in a 64% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, with signals from Federal Reserve officials like Stephen Miran about the possibility of a deeper 50 basis point cut.

In this context, gold reasserts its strategic position as a safe haven, as accommodative policies weaken the dollar and reduce real yields on bonds, making the yellow metal an effective hedge against declining purchasing power and increasing economic risks.

Ending the Government Shutdown Crisis: Reducing Political Uncertainty but Without Changing the Economic Path

The US Senate’s approval of a funding agreement restored political stability after the longest government shutdown in history, but this development did not bring about a radical shift in investor outlooks. The real issue lies not in the shutdown itself, but in the actual economic figures revealed afterward. With official data returning after more than a month’s pause, the market regains an element of surprise, and any unexpected negative indicators could further boost expectations of rate cuts, providing additional support for gold in the coming weeks.

Technical Picture: Calculated Progress with Short-Term Overbought Warnings

Gold is currently moving within a moderate upward range, after successfully bouncing from a strong support zone at $3,928. The (4-hour timeframe) chart shows a medium-term upward trend with higher highs and higher lows since the beginning of the last quarter. Today’s prices are around $4,133, with a clear bias to test the nearest resistance at $4,145 and extending to $4,180.

Regarding indicators, the (RSI) shows a reading of 75 points, reflecting a short-term overbought condition that may trigger some correction. However, the positive divergence between price movement and the (RSI) indicator—where RSI formed rising lows while prices moved sideways earlier—supports the continuation of buying momentum. Trading volume shows a gradual improvement in tandem with recent highs, confirming the entry of new capital.

Key support levels remain at $4,046 (Strong nearby support) and $3,928 (Pivot support opening the way toward $3,470 in case of a deep correction). Resistance levels are at $4,145 (Directly), $4,381 (Previous significant high), and $4,500 (Potential future technical target).

JPMorgan’s Outlook: Ambitious Vision of Exceeding $5,000 in 2026

JPMorgan places gold at the forefront of assets expected to achieve exceptional performance next year, with projections of surpassing $5,000 per ounce. This scenario is based on deeper structural factors: a steady increase in central bank purchases (especially in emerging markets), continued global monetary easing policies, and declining attractiveness of fixed-yield assets. Although current prices around $4,130–$4,140 seem distant from this target, investor behavior reflects a radical shift toward holding gold as a core strategic component rather than just a short-term trading tool.

Today’s Perspective 11 November: Multiple Probable Scenarios

Gold is expected to continue its upward movements toward the $4,145–$4,200 range, where this zone forms a pivotal resistance that may slightly slow the pace of the rally before a new attempt to break through. In the positive scenario, a clear breakout above $4,200 could push prices toward $4,300 soon. Conversely, the alternative scenario (although less likely) involves selling pressures pushing gold back toward $4,046 and then $3,928 in case of positive economic surprises for the US. The overall trend remains bullish, with slight corrective movements possible before any new rally as long as the metal stays above key support levels.

Performance of Other Precious Metals: Varied Rise Reflecting Mixed Market Dynamics

Other precious metals experienced a positive day alongside gold, but to varying degrees. Silver rose to around $50.9 per ounce benefiting from improved sentiment towards safe assets, though its high sensitivity to industrial demand may limit its upward pace. Platinum traded around $1,584 supported by a recovery in industrial demand, especially in the automotive sector, while palladium continued its ascent toward $1,435 benefiting from signs of improvement in global supply chains. Overall, all precious metals benefit from economic uncertainty and dollar weakness, but gold remains the most targeted instrument amid growing bets on easing policies.