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Cryptocurrency market trends change rapidly, but many people overlook a fundamental question: can you see through whether the main force is shaking out traders or unloading? Honestly, this ability is sometimes more crucial than just predicting the right direction.
My friend previously held a small coin, which rose about 30% before experiencing significant fluctuations, almost getting shaken out. I advised him to carefully observe the trading volume—surprisingly, the trading volume was continuously decreasing, clearly indicating that the main force was shaking out retail investors rather than cashing out. Sure enough, by holding firm, the final increase nearly doubled. During this period, the intraday chart maintained a steady trend, but the trading volume was quietly rising. We gradually reduced positions and exited, and ultimately his account grew nearly fivefold.
Regarding the current altcoin market, most are still oscillating at the bottom zone, and many are eager to ask "which one can be bought at a discount." In fact, what really matters is how to judge whether the downtrend has truly ended. A simple but effective method is not to guess the lowest point but to observe its performance relative to its position. For example, if the weekly decline begins to narrow, the daily chart shows divergence at the bottom, and trading volume gently increases, then you can start testing with small amounts.
Every move by the main force leaves signs—shaking out retail investors is to scare them out, unloading is to realize profits. Learning to recognize these signs allows you to determine when to hold on tightly and when to cut decisively. There’s no high-level technical skill involved; the key is whether you can stay calm enough and whether you’re willing to wait.
Many people can’t hold onto their positions or keep jumping in halfway. Instead of blaming the market or others, it’s better to reflect on whether you’ve established a framework for identifying the true intentions of the main force. The market is always there, and opportunities are always available.
I can't be sure either. Sometimes it looks like a shakeout, but it ends up breaking through the bottom directly, and my mindset just collapses.
The key is to have patience, but that's really too difficult for me.
Making money is always about the mindset; that's the most heartbreaking part.
The bottom consolidation phase is so painful. Seeing others have already exited while you're still holding on, and in the end, proving yourself right leaves you speechless.
Distinguishing between a shakeout and a distribution is truly a mystique; volume can't lie, but people can deceive themselves.
It's really not a technical issue; it's whether you can resist acting—that's the hardest part.
This framework sounds easy to say but hard to implement. You really have to hold on tight.
I need to study the bottom divergence part carefully; I always feel like I can't see it clearly.
Honestly, the hardest part is mindset. When I see the price dropping, I want to escape.
The main force is indeed cunning, but I’ve learned this way of thinking.
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Basically, it's a mindset issue—those who can wait make money, those who are impatient lose money.
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A friend talking about fivefold returns sounds pretty exciting, but when you review such operations, are they really that stable?
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I've used the bottom divergence + volume contraction strategy before, but I feel it still depends on the overall market environment.
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Every time I look at technical analysis, I think of my past lessons of going all-in haha.
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Instead of guessing the lowest point, it's more reliable to look at trading volume; this advice is still solid.
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The problem is most people can't sit still; they don't even want to wait for the bottom, and they'll sell at a 10% drop.
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Is a fivefold increase real? That's a bit exaggerated, brother.
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Main force traces are easy to recognize, but greed is even harder to control.
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I just want to know how to tell if it's a shakeout or just a pump-and-dump.