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U.S. employment suddenly weakens, dark currents in 2026 begin to emerge

The unexpected arrives—December ADP employment data shows an increase of only 41,000 jobs, far below the market expectation of 50,000. Behind the numbers, the true picture of the U.S. labor market is emerging. While the private sector shows slight signs of recovery, large corporations continue to cut jobs, and small businesses, although restarting hiring, struggle to support the overall market.

Who is hiring, and who is laying off? Education, healthcare, and leisure services become the main drivers of employment growth, while professional services and manufacturing continue to weaken. ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson's observations are sharp and realistic: "Large companies are still shrinking, only small and micro enterprises are sending faint signals."

Notably, the wage growth for job changers has rebounded to 6.6%, indicating that the talent war is still simmering—although hiring has slowed, companies still need to raise wages to retain talent.

The real drama unfolds on Friday. What story will the non-farm payroll report tell? Will the unemployment rate decline or continue to rise? Will the Federal Reserve accelerate or pause its rate cuts? The battle between employment and inflation is about to reach a decisive moment, and the entire market is waiting for this answer.