Just saw that the US ADP employment data missed expectations, and the labor market is starting off a bit cold. Watching many people get nervous, I’ve been analyzing on-chain data all morning, and the conclusion I’ve drawn might be different from what everyone expects.

From the news perspective, the hiring momentum is indeed weakening, and there are signs of economic cooling. But think about it—this basically blocks the Federal Reserve from continuing to raise interest rates significantly in 2026. Liquidity pressures will gradually ease. For the crypto market, this actually creates a subtle favorable environment.

Looking at the real on-chain traces, BTC holdings on exchanges are still decreasing, indicating some are withdrawing and hoarding. Smart money addresses have been continuously accumulating this week—what does this usually mean? The market cap of stablecoins is also starting to stabilize and rebound, showing funds are positioning themselves. Short-term sentiment indicators are indeed leaning towards fear, but the number of large transfers is quietly increasing—obviously, smart investors are taking advantage of volatility to buy the dip in batches.

My view remains unchanged. The first quarter is a process of consolidation and bottoming out, and in the second quarter, improved liquidity will boost the strength of mainstream coins. Don’t be swayed by daily fluctuations—if prices drop, build positions gradually; if they rise, stay steady and don’t chase. The big moves often come quietly when most people start doubting.

Only those who can hold on will enjoy the biggest gains. The market never explicitly reveals the truth, but data and on-chain footprints will help guide you.