BTC ETH Market Observation

U.S. employment data once again underperformed, pouring cold water on the market at the start of 2026. According to the latest released data, U.S. December ADP employment growth was only 41,000 jobs, not only far below the market expectation of 50,000 but also reflecting the reality of a labor market lacking momentum.

A closer look at the performance across sectors further illustrates the issue. Large enterprises continue to shrink, which is a dangerous signal worth noting. However, small and micro businesses are showing signs of recovery, with hiring activities restarting, though the scale is still insufficient to support overall growth. Industry-wise, education, healthcare, and leisure services have maintained stability, but professional services and manufacturing are experiencing ongoing contraction.

Interestingly, the pace of salary increases for job changers rebounded to 6.6%, indicating that talent competition between companies and employees is intensifying. Although overall hiring has slowed, the competition for talent remains fierce.

The real suspense lies ahead. The non-farm payroll report on Friday is the key; whether the unemployment rate can decline and how the Federal Reserve will adjust its policies will directly influence market direction. The employment-inflation dialogue has entered its most critical phase, and crypto market investors are all waiting for this decisive moment.