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The US non-farm payroll data has been released, and there are a few key points worth noting.
First, this month's employment numbers did not meet expectations, which is a fact. However, on a month-over-month basis, there has been some improvement compared to last month. The problem is that this slight improvement doesn't change much — the overall employment market trend from September to December remains downward, and three interest rate cuts haven't been able to reverse this trend.
The data comes from ADP, a human resources management company founded in 1949. It is unaffected by government shutdowns, so the independence and authenticity of the data are still guaranteed.
Overall, this set of data isn't particularly positive, but at least there are no new negative factors. The real focus is on tomorrow — only after the official Labor Department data is released can we have a clearer judgment on the Federal Reserve's future policy direction.
Tomorrow's Department of Labor data will be the real watershed; anything said now is pointless.
Interestingly, every time it's said that "there are no new negative signals," but what happens next?