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#数字资产行情上升 The US December employment growth slowdown becomes a focus—ADP data shows an increase of only 41,000 jobs, well below expectations. This directly sends a signal: the labor market is cooling down.
Market reactions were swift. US Treasury yields fell accordingly, $BTC stabilized at the $92,000 mark, and $ETH remained steady around $3,250. The logic behind this is clear: expectations of easing are heating up. Some predict a potential rate cut of 75-100 basis points in 2026, and Federal Reserve officials have even mentioned that "rate cuts this year could exceed 100 basis points."
But here’s a key point—everything still depends on this Friday. The non-farm payrolls data is the real decisive factor; if that data also appears weak, the probability of a rate cut in January could significantly increase. Conversely, if the unemployment rate does not rise noticeably, the story of rate cuts might reverse.
This is the current situation: the window for policy expectations has opened, and structural opportunities are hidden within. Investors need to keep a close eye on these data points and not miss potential turning points.
Non-farm payrolls are the real deal; we'll see on Friday.
Really cutting interest rates? I'll wait and see.
How long can they hold the 92,000 level? I'm not sure.
The easing expectations have been hyped up, but don't get caught off guard.
Data is what truly matters; everything else is just smoke and mirrors.
Waiting for Friday's data—that's the real test.
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BTC stabilizing at 92,000 sounds good, but the problem is that the hourly volatility is still too large; even during historical lows, it was more stable than this. Miners are consuming too much, and the costs are right there.
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Cut interest rates by 100 basis points? Just listen, I stopped trusting the words of Federal Reserve officials a long time ago. I've observed a pattern: the more they say this, the more the market moves in the opposite direction.
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Friday's data is indeed crucial, but the mechanism itself is unreasonable—rising unemployment rate means cutting interest rates? This logic will collapse sooner or later.
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The policy window has opened... and then what? It's always the same story. Investors are not getting cut less. Be patient and wait for those truly verifiable points.