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#2026年比特币价格展望 Someone is always asking me: Is there still a chance to buy mainstream cryptocurrencies now? My idea is actually very straightforward — those who truly make money are never the ones trying to catch the bottom, but rather the holders who stick to dollar-cost averaging and are willing to go a bit slower.
I have a friend who has been doing dollar-cost averaging since 2022. At first, he was also scared by the market fluctuations, but later he realized a truth: the returns from dollar-cost averaging never come from perfectly catching the bottom, but from maintaining a consistent rhythm day after day. Now, this guy has already achieved his phased profit targets, significantly eased his financial pressure, and even gained the confidence to plan for the long term.
I summarized his approach into three strategies, and everyone can choose based on their risk preference:
**Linear DCA** is the purest form — investing the same amount at fixed times each week (for example, $500 weekly), regardless of market volatility. Persisting like this, your average cost will naturally be smoothed out, and risk will be diversified.
**Layered Position Building** requires preset psychological price points. For example, buy more when the price drops to $400, add another layer at $300, and go all-in at $200. The more the market falls, the calmer you become because you know your allocation, and the opportunity to accumulate at low levels comes just like that.
**Technical Analysis Reference** uses the EMA100 line as a mid-term trend indicator. When the price approaches this moving average, it’s often a good entry point; if you want to be more cautious, you can also look at the EMA200 to grasp longer-term trends.
Honestly, there’s nothing fancy about this approach — success or failure depends entirely on execution. The game of dollar-cost averaging is never about how smart you are, but whether you can stay disciplined. Those who keep investing quietly a year before the bull market starts often end up being seen by friends as "luckily very fortunate." There’s nothing mysterious about it — it’s just a matter of having more patience.
Dollar-cost averaging really doesn't require much skill; it's just a test of whether you can hold on.
Being patient is the key. I've seen too many people try to time the market and end up getting burned.
EMA really works well; I've verified it long ago.
This guy's mindset is really on point. Looking back, the dollar-cost averaging from two years ago was definitely a good move.
But I still want to ask, what if it crashes in 2026? Wouldn't all the dollar-cost averaging be pointless then?
It's called patience in a nice way, but in a harsh way, it's just inhuman, haha.
I've also played around with EMA strategies, but the key is mindset. Can you really continue to invest when prices are falling? That’s the real dividing line.
Those who can sit tight truly win, but everyone knows that. The hard part is actually doing it.
I support the layered addition to positions; it's much better psychologically than blind dollar-cost averaging.
For friends who have been坚持投到现在 since 2022, this is not luck; it's just earning what you deserve.
Don't boast about your execution ability. I just ask, can you really stay unmoved for a whole year?
From a technical perspective, the effectiveness of the DCA strategy is indeed supported by academic research, but the risk weights of the three methods discussed in the article differ significantly — layered dollar-cost averaging is essentially an "enhanced dollar-cost averaging," which deviates from the original intention of "timing independence." In summary,
I would like to ask, that friend who has been investing since 2022, what is the specific annualized return? Based on what time period was it calculated? This directly affects the evaluation of the methodology's effectiveness.
EMA100 is indeed very useful, but the hardest part is definitely not to cut positions midway.
Wait, how is your friend doing now? Are they still investing regularly or have they already exited?
With the market so unpredictable, can we really stay steady...
Dollar-cost averaging isn't wrong; the key is whether you can withstand the psychological pressure. Easier said than done.
Your friend is really impressive; since 2022, I haven't seen many who can resist and keep investing.
But to be honest, I always feel that this theory is a bit too idealistic for retail investors. When a big market crash hits, try to stay calm and continue investing steadily.