In the crypto world, being able to distinguish whether the main force is shaking out or distributing can sometimes be more valuable than just predicting the right direction.

My friend once held a small coin that surged over 30%, then started to fluctuate wildly, almost getting him to sell out. I advised him to look at the trading volume—sure enough, the volume was continuously shrinking, a clear sign of a shakeout pattern. He didn’t cut his losses, and later the coin nearly doubled in value. During the distribution phase, we watched the intraday chart stay relatively stable, but the trading volume quietly and gradually increased, prompting him to decisively reduce his position in batches. After this move, his account’s gains approached five times.

Currently, most altcoins are bottoming out at low levels, and many people are eager to ask, "Which ones are good to pick up at a discount?" But the real test is: can you determine whether the downtrend has ended? I’ve summarized a relatively practical method—don’t gamble on the absolute bottom, just observe the relative position. Specifically: on the weekly chart, the downtrend begins to slow; on the daily chart, there are signals of bullish divergence; combined with a gentle expansion of volume, these three conditions together can signal it’s time to consider entering in stages.

The actions of the main force are actually traceable. The purpose of shakeouts is to shake off retail traders without resolve, and the purpose of distribution is to realize profits. Their market behaviors are completely different. Once you see through this, you’ll know when to hold firm and when to exit. It doesn’t require any mysterious techniques—just stay calm and learn to wait.

If you often can’t hold onto your positions, or keep trying to bottom fish in the middle of the move, the problem might not be luck but rather that you haven’t established a framework to identify the main force’s intentions. Take your time to study it; market opportunities are always there.