Looking at the recent on-chain data of SOL, the chip structure has already shown a clear two-tier differentiation. In the $120 to $200 range, 435 million SOL tokens have accumulated, accounting for 77% of the circulating supply, with a turnover cost not exceeding $80. What does this highly concentrated distribution imply? On one hand, the chip positions are uniform, with no risk of extreme loss or profit-taking panic selling, and the risk margin has significantly increased compared to the previous cycle. On the other hand, the mid-range chips are too heavy, and breaking upward requires multiple digestion steps, making a rapid rally in the short term unlikely.

The sentiment data is even more striking. PSIP once dropped to 20%, which is an extreme historical low point, comparable only to the 11% during the FTX collapse in 2022. Currently, 80% of the circulating chips are floating in unrealized losses. According to the pattern, a PSIP below 30% often indicates a bottom area, and after extreme emotional pressure, a rebound usually follows. However, it’s important to note that a sentiment bottom does not equal a price bottom; if BTC continues to decline, there is still a risk of a secondary bottom.

The most interesting aspect is the whale’s operational logic. Major whales holding between 1k and 10k SOL, who reduced their holdings during the ETF anticipation phase in October last year, have been actively reaccumulating during this deep correction. When PSIP drops to 20%, they are actually increasing their holdings significantly. This behavior signal is quite critical—the whales’ absorption provides substantial buying support, effectively preventing the price from collapsing further. The key follow-up is whether this accumulation can continue. Once whales start to reduce their holdings again, the support at the bottom will loosen.

From a cost perspective, the $133 level has become a core support, backed by the consensus accumulation of major whales. Whether this line can hold determines, to some extent, where the lower limit is.