Venezuela after Maduro: What U.S. intervention means for energy supply and safe-haven assets

Under President Trump’s leadership, the U.S. government secretly detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife on drug charges, with New York Judge Alvin K. Hellerstein presiding over the operation. While mentioning drug terrorism, Trump emphasized that American oil giants are investing billions of dollars to repair Venezuela’s oil infrastructure. Venezuela has proven reserves of 3,030 billion barrels, surpassing Saudi Arabia’s 2,670 billion barrels. Although María Corina Machado has close ties with Israel and opposition leaders, Trump considers her unfit and instead promoted transitional figures like Delsi Rodriguez. This move aims to ensure that oil is traded in US dollars rather than RMB or euros, thereby consolidating the dominance of the petrodollar. UBS predicts that by 2026, oil prices will reach $58 per barrel; BofA Securities points out that the market will continue to be oversupplied. Amid geopolitical tensions, JPMorgan’s Tang Yuxuan believes that due to safe-haven demand, gold prices will rise. Latin American cryptocurrency trading volume has surged, with Venezuela’s trading volume reaching $44.6 billion, potentially boosting Bitcoin adoption. US companies Chevron, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Schlumberger, and Halliburton are expected to benefit from reconstruction efforts, but substantial production may not be achieved until 2030.