Bitcoin almost reached 94,700. What will happen after breaking this level?

Glassnode co-founder Negentropic recently pointed out that Bitcoin needs to break through the key level of $94,700. Once the daily closing price reaches this level, the probability of retesting the all-time high will significantly increase. Interestingly, the current Bitcoin price has already approached this critical level, but market liquidity is shrinking, and there is also uncertainty related to tariff policies this week. The combination of these factors determines the key to Bitcoin’s next move.

Technical Significance of Breaking the Key Level

According to the latest news, Bitcoin’s current price is $91,474.94, only about $2,226 away from the key level of $94,700, an increase of less than 2.5%. From a technical perspective, the importance of this level lies in its potential to serve as a gateway to upward movement.

Current price and distance to the key level

Expectations After Breakthrough

What does it mean if Bitcoin’s daily closing price breaks above $94,700? According to the judgment of the Glassnode co-founder, this would significantly increase the chances of retesting the all-time high. The logic behind this is: breaking through technical levels often signals bullish market sentiment, encouraging investors to follow the trend and buy in, thereby pushing prices higher.

Liquidity Dilemma and Breakout Challenges

There is a point worth noting: although the price is very close to the key level, market liquidity is shrinking. According to the latest data, the spot trading volume of Bitcoin and altcoins has hit a new low since November 2023. What does this imply?

Impact of Thin Liquidity

• Larger buy orders are needed to break through, as each big trade incurs higher impact costs
• Price volatility may become more intense, with small investors more easily pushed out
• Although the distance appears to be only 2%, in a low-liquidity environment, this distance could be extended

Meanwhile, market funding rate data also reflects this situation. The 7-day average funding rate for perpetual contracts has risen from 0% to 0.005%, then fallen back to 0.003%. While this level still provides some support, according to Glassnode’s analysis, historical data shows that sustained market rallies typically require funding rates above 0.01%. In other words, current support levels are not strong enough.

Policy Risks and Uncertainties

Beyond technical and liquidity factors, another critical element is policy risk. According to recent reports, market volatility is expected this Friday, as there is over a 70% probability that tariffs will be deemed unconstitutional in the US.

The potential impact pathway on Bitcoin is: if tariffs are ruled unconstitutional, it could trigger a reassessment of risk assets, affecting Bitcoin’s performance as a risk asset. Although the specific details and timing of the ruling are still uncertain, it adds a variable to this week’s market dynamics.

Recent Price Trends for Reference

From this data, Bitcoin has positive returns over 7 and 30 days, but experienced a slight correction in 24 hours. This indicates that while there is an upward trend in the short term, some necessary adjustments are underway.

Overall Assessment

From a technical, liquidity, and policy perspective, Bitcoin’s next key level is whether it can break through $94,700. This is not just a number but also a psychological and technical turning point.

My personal view is: although the gap is only 2%, in a low-liquidity environment, this breakout may require some external catalysts. The tariff policy ruling this Friday could serve as such a catalyst—if the outcome is positive, it may boost market confidence; if uncertain, it could trigger a correction.

Summary

Bitcoin is currently approaching the critical level of $94,700. The probability of breaking through depends on the convergence of three factors: first, technical accumulation (already close), second, liquidity support (currently weak), and third, policy catalysts (to be clarified this Friday). From this perspective, the next week’s performance will determine whether Bitcoin can open a new upward space. If it can break through smoothly and hold, retesting the all-time high will have a solid technical basis; otherwise, more time for accumulation may be needed.