How do institutions view Bitcoin? What is the potential for the next 30 years?

【BlockBeats】A well-known asset management company VanEck recently released a long-term Bitcoin research report, jointly authored by its Digital Asset Research Head Matthew Sigel and analyst Patrick Bush. The report uses models to analyze Bitcoin’s growth potential over the next few decades and provides forecasts under three different scenarios.

Let’s start with the baseline scenario—this is the most likely path. The model assumes Bitcoin will account for 5-10% of global trade, becoming a central bank reserve asset representing 2.5% of their balance sheets. Based on this assumption, by 2050, each Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 15%.

What if the market cools down? In a conservative scenario, the annual growth rate is only 2%, and by 2050, each Bitcoin would be worth about $130,000. But if we look at the extreme bullish “Super Bitcoinization” route—where Bitcoin accounts for 20% of global trade and 10% of GDP—then theoretically, each Bitcoin could soar to $53.4 million, corresponding to a 29% CAGR.

So how should institutional investors allocate? VanEck recommends holding 1-3% of Bitcoin in a diversified investment portfolio. Investors with strong risk tolerance have historically increased this allocation to 20% to optimize returns. The report emphasizes Bitcoin’s unique value as a low-correlation asset—it can hedge against currency devaluation, which is especially meaningful for developed markets facing high sovereign debt. In other words, Bitcoin is gradually evolving from a purely speculative asset into a strategic reserve asset.