Bitcoin rebound weakens: ETF continues to bleed, difficulty breaking 105,000 increases

2026-01-13 02:40:17

【Blockchain Rhythm】 The performance of Bitcoin over the past week has indeed been interesting. Last Monday, Bitcoin briefly surged above $92,000, mainly influenced by the U.S. Department of Justice’s investigation into Federal Reserve officials, which temporarily sparked concerns about the Fed’s independence. Such uncertainties usually increase the appeal of alternative assets like Bitcoin, at least logically.

But the reality is that this rally didn’t last long. Traders’ enthusiasm was clearly low, and the reason is straightforward—Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced a net outflow of $1.38 billion over the past four trading days. This figure indicates that institutional investors are watching cautiously, even reducing their holdings.

More noteworthy is the basis data. Currently, the annualized premium of Bitcoin futures remains stable at around 5%, a neutral to slightly bearish level. When a true bull market arrives, the futures premium relative to spot usually exceeds 10%. This level suggests that the market is still somewhat cautious.

Interestingly, even major players like Strategy increased their Bitcoin holdings by $1.25 billion over the past month, yet the price failed to hold above $94,000 effectively. What does this indirectly reflect? It indicates that a mere improvement in liquidity can’t reverse the overall bearish sentiment.

Looking at a longer timeframe, Bitcoin has fallen about 23% from its October 2025 high, while gold and silver have hit new highs in 2026. This divergence has led many to reconsider—Is the narrative of “Bitcoin as a digital store of value” starting to fail?

To sum up the current situation: whether from ETF capital flows or from the tepid demand for leveraged long positions, Bitcoin’s short-term upward momentum is limited. Unless a sudden event triggers a rally, the probability of the price breaking through $105,000 in the near term is low, and the risk of further decline should also be watched carefully.

BTC-3,49%

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OldLeekNewSickle

· 01-15 22:59

Institutions are reducing their positions, this is awkward. No matter how elegant the logic is, it can't withstand the influence of capital.

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BearMarketMonk

· 01-15 22:24

The logic sounds good, but reality is a slap in the face. Isn't the story of $1.38 billion enough to prove the point? Institutions have already voted.

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BearMarketBuyer

· 01-14 18:54

Institutions are running, and the basis is still so low, indicating that even the big players don't dare to gamble anymore.

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SigmaValidator

· 01-13 03:10

Institutions are all rushing out, and you're still counting on retail investors to step in? Wake up.

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ContractSurrender

· 01-13 03:07

Institutions are running, and the basis isn't very hot either. This rebound indeed feels a bit insubstantial.