Multiple international investment banks forecast the US December CPI: most expect an annual rate of 2.7%. What does this mean for the crypto market?

【Crypto World】The Federal Reserve’s policy direction is often driven by CPI data, and market expectations for December inflation data directly influence the movement of cryptocurrencies. Recently, several international investment banks and research institutions have released their forecasts for the December unadjusted CPI year-over-year rate.

In terms of annual rate forecasts, banks such as DeCarlo Bank, Royal Bank of Canada, CIBC Macro, and Scotiabank generally expect a range of +2.5% to +2.6%. Meanwhile, twelve major institutions including Bank of America, Barclays, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Danske Bank, ING, Standard Chartered, TD Securities, Lloyds, Wells Fargo, and Stifel are concentrated around +2.7%, in line with Reuters’ expectations. More aggressive forecasts come from ABN AMRO and U.S. Bank (+2.8%), as well as DBS Bank (+2.9%).

Regarding seasonally adjusted monthly rates, the divergence among institutions is relatively small. DeCarlo and Royal Bank of Canada are bullish at +0.2%, with most institutions focusing on the +0.3% range, including CIBC Macro, Citibank, Deutsche Bank, Danske Bank, HSBC, ING, Moody’s Analytics, Lloyds, Pansonic Macro, Scotiabank, and TD Securities. Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and Barclays expect slightly higher at +0.4%.

If the data indeed shows persistent inflation, it could reinforce market concerns about a slowdown in the Fed’s rate cuts, thereby exerting pressure on risk assets. Conversely, if the data is moderate, it will support a rebound in crypto market sentiment.