From the perspective of inflation structure, the CPI that truly influences the market is the "core component"

Many people only focus on the total CPI value but overlook the structure itself. In fact, what truly drives policy and asset pricing is the core CPI (excluding food and energy), especially the rent, medical, and wage-related components within service inflation.

Short-term fluctuations in energy prices can indeed pull down the CPI, but the Federal Reserve has long made it clear: it will not turn dovish due to a short-term decline in oil prices. What is more worth monitoring now is the "slow variable" of service sector inflation — it declines slowly, but once it forms a trend, it has a deeper impact on policy paths.

If the current CPI shows the following combinations, market interpretation will be very clear:
✔️ Total CPI declines + core CPI slows down simultaneously → Clearly bullish for risk assets
⚠️ Total CPI declines + core CPI remains high → Limited bullishness, market fluctuates
❌ Total CPI and core CPI both rise → Strongly suppresses valuations

For the cryptocurrency market, changes in core CPI are especially important because crypto assets are inherently still viewed as "long-duration assets," highly sensitive to real interest rates. As long as core inflation does not significantly decline, the expectation of rate cuts cannot truly materialize, and the market can only engage in emotional trading rather than forming a trend-based bull market.

Therefore, the key to this CPI is not "how much it has fallen," but "whether the decline is in the part that should be falling." This often determines whether the market is a one-day wonder or a confirmation signal before a trend begins. #CPI数据将公布