The Federal Reserve has a 95% probability of maintaining stability in January, and market liquidity faces short-term pressure.

【Crypto World】According to CME Federal Reserve observation data, market expectations for the direction of the federal funds rate have shifted. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is extremely low, only 5.0%, with a 95.0% chance of maintaining the current rate level—this essentially locks in no rate cuts in the near term.

Looking ahead to March, the outlook is also not very optimistic. The cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 24.3%, indicating that even by the end of the first quarter, the likelihood of a rate cut remains low, with a 74.6% chance of holding rates steady. As for the extreme scenario of a sudden 50 basis point cut, the probability is even lower, at only 1.1%.

For cryptocurrency investors, this means that the liquidity environment will likely remain tight in the short term. In a high-interest-rate environment, funds tend to flow more into traditional financial assets, which can to some extent impact the supply of risk capital in the crypto market.