- Bitcoin's divergence from the global M2 money supply growth is expected to continue into early 2026, amid divided analyst opinions:

Since mid-2025, Bitcoin has shown signs of decoupling from the growth of the global money supply (M2). By 2026, this divergence has become more evident.

The historical relationship between these two factors has formed the basis for many optimistic forecasts. Now, however, analysts are sharply divided on what this phenomenon indicates for 2026.

- Analysts are divided in their interpretations of the relationship between Bitcoin and the global money supply index (M2).
The January report from Fidelity Digital Assets continues to express confidence in a positive correlation between the money supply M2 and Bitcoin's price.

Fidelity confirms that Bitcoin's bull cycles typically coincide with periods of acceleration in the money supply (M2). Due to its rarity, Bitcoin absorbs excess capital much more strongly than other assets.

Image: Annual change in the global money supply (M2) and Bitcoin price. Source: Fidelity Digital Assets

"With a new global easing cycle beginning and the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program ending, it is likely that this growth rate will continue to rise throughout 2026, providing a positive catalyst for Bitcoin's price." — as stated by Fidelity.

Proponents of this view note that gold and silver have recently absorbed demand for inflation hedging. They also say that renewed money printing in various countries has become a major driver of Bitcoin's rising value.

Analyst Marty Party takes a bolder stance, comparing Bitcoin's price to the global money supply (M2) with a 50-day lag. He expects this week to be the moment when Bitcoin's price rebounds to match the growth of the money supply.

Image: Global M2 and Bitcoin price. Source: MartyParty

"Bitcoin vs. global liquidity — delayed by 50 days. M2 says we will bounce here — January 12." — predicts Marty Party.

However, Fidelity's chart shows that the annual growth of Bitcoin and the annual global money supply index (M2) have lost their correlation over the past year. This divergence has widened significantly since the start of 2026, with Bitcoin showing negative annual growth, while the global money supply index (M2) grows by over 10% annually. This has raised doubts among some analysts.

Notes from Mr. Crypto indicate that periods when Bitcoin's price diverges from the growth of the money supply (M2) often signal major market peaks. These phases are usually followed by a market downturn lasting from two to four years.

Image: Global M2 and Bitcoin price. Source: Mr. Crypto

Meanwhile, analyst Charles Edwards takes a completely different approach to interpreting this phenomenon.

He argues that 2025 marked the beginning of a risk of quantum computer breakthrough in Bitcoin encryption, which is a plausible scenario. Therefore, the divergence from M2 reflects this risk.

"This is the first time Bitcoin has diverged from the money supply and global liquidity flows. Why? Because 2025 was the first year Bitcoin entered the quantum event horizon. The timeframe for a non-zero probability of a quantum breakthrough in Bitcoin encryption is now less than the estimated time to update it. Accordingly, funds are being redirected to account for this risk." — said Charles Edwards.

In short, the split among analysts reflects increasing market complexity for Bitcoin. Optimists follow traditional historical models supported by Federal Reserve rate cuts and money printing. Pessimists focus on unprecedented technological risks.

Bitcoin also faces other risks in 2026, including yen trading risks and the potential outbreak of a third world war amid increasing global economic and geopolitical tensions.

These risks do not necessarily mean the end of Bitcoin but may create investment opportunities for many investors. These investors believe that Bitcoin, regardless of world changes, will remain a store of value in the long term, as demonstrated over its more than 15-year history.