Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are creating ripples across prediction markets. Right now, there's real chatter about potential U.S. military action against Iran possibly unfolding within the month—some even speculating it could happen this week. The thing is, when you look at where the odds are trading on Polymarket, something feels off. The pricing looks stretched relative to what the actual probability might be. These kinds of major geopolitical moves demand serious groundwork and preparation beforehand. The market's probably underestimating how much coordination and logistical complexity that actually requires.