2026-01-15 00:01:34

#美国消费者物价指数发布在即【January 15 Morning Market Analysis】

Let's start with a detail that is easy to overlook—the recent surge of Bitcoin. Many attribute the rally to the CPI positive data, but in fact, the market's upward momentum had already been brewing. CPI data was like a match that ignited the already stacked firewood, and combined with various positive news resonating together, the coin price surged so quickly.

However, there is a phenomenon worth cautioning: the amplitude of breaking new highs is narrowing. Previously, a single wave of rally could run 4000-5000 points; now, it's only about 2000 points. What does this indicate? The upward momentum is waning, and the strength of the advance is clearly not as fierce as before.

That said, decaying momentum does not mean the trend has reversed. The current market is still in the accumulation phase of the upward cycle, and it is highly likely to continue pushing higher later. Entering short positions now carries too much risk.

**Technical outlook?**

On the daily chart, Bitcoin has been consistently bullish, breaking through previous highs strongly yesterday, showing clear bullish characteristics. However, on the hourly chart, around 97,000, there is some hesitation, and a short-term adjustment might be needed.

Indicators are interesting: the hourly MACD is above the zero line, but the red bars are narrowing, indicating the bulls are losing some strength; meanwhile, the daily MACD red bars are expanding continuously, so the bullish trend remains stable. The RSI also hints at some signals—on the hourly chart, it has reached 75, showing overbought conditions, increasing the risk of a pullback; on the daily chart, RSI stays above 70, maintaining its strong attribute.

All moving averages are in a bullish alignment, with daily EMAs neatly trending upward, indicating no problem with the long-term trend.

**Trading idea:** Focus on buying on dips.

$BTC: Buy in the 95200-96200 range, target 97800-98800
$ETH: Buy in the 3270-3310 range, target 3390-3430

BTC-2,21%

ETH-3,22%

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RumbleValidator

· 01-17 09:37

The analogy of lighting a fire with a matchstick is okay, but to be honest, CPI data is just a catalyst. The key is whether the node's stability can withstand this wave of market flow. Otherwise, if the verification efficiency drops the ball, everything is pointless.

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IfIWereOnChain

· 01-17 07:56

Hmm, the deceleration of momentum is indeed something to watch out for, but I remain bullish and am not in a rush to buy the dip.

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StableGeniusDegen

· 01-16 05:30

The decay of momentum is indeed easy to overlook. It feels like many people are still blindly chasing highs, waiting to be harvested. CPI is just a matchstick; fundamentally, it still depends on the chip game. The signal of narrowing price gains cannot be ignored. I also noticed the red MACD bars on the hourly chart narrowing. The bears still need to wait; don't rush to bottom fish. The daily chart remains strong, but the 97,000 level always feels a bit sluggish. I want to see it more clearly later. Buying on dips is a solid strategy, but risk control is essential. Don't get shaken out again. The accumulation phase is the right judgment, but no one knows when it will be finished. I'm still watching.

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LuckyBlindCat

· 01-15 00:31

The discussion about momentum decay is quite interesting. Indeed, many people have been fooled by false breakouts, and it's still outrageous to bet on a unidirectional move now.

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CryptoMotivator

· 01-15 00:27

Lighting a fire with matches sounds simple, but making money really depends on what happens next. I've long felt that the momentum is waning, and this recent surge isn't as strong as before. However, I do agree that now is indeed risky to short the empty positions, but I still see some hope.

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TokenomicsShaman

· 01-15 00:26

We really need to be cautious about the deceleration of momentum; it feels like this rally might end with a whimper. Another "match igniting the firewood" story—who knows if it will turn around and slap us back. The 97,000 level has been tested for so long; it seems the probability of a short-term top is quite high.

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just_another_fish

· 01-15 00:22

Wow, the analysis of energy decay is excellent. That previous feeling of soaring over 4,000 points definitely can't be regained. I'm feeling a bit uncertain now.

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defi_detective

· 01-15 00:19

The idea of momentum decay is interesting, but I still think the role of that matchstick in CPI isn't that small. It's another case of buying the dip. Why does this narrative seem to work every time? Can 97000 really hold? I'm a bit worried. The recent consecutive daily gains feel like a false prosperity; they look strong but lack real momentum. BTC's new high is narrowing in range; is it going to slowly consolidate and fluctuate? If the indicators narrow, let them narrow. Anyway, 99K will be tested sooner or later. When the hourly chart is overbought, it adjusts; after the adjustment, it pushes again. Is this a cycle?

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RooftopVIP

· 01-15 00:14

I agree with the view that momentum is decaying, but saying the risk is too high is a bit conservative. It's still uncertain how far this rebound can go. --- It's the same old pattern of buying the dip. Bro, if your short position really loses money, don't regret it. --- A while ago, it was 5000 points, now it's 2000 points. The shrinkage is quite sharp. You should take a good look to see if an adjustment is coming. --- The MACD red histogram is narrowing, still claiming the bullish trend is steady. I don't quite believe that argument. --- The hourly RSI is already at 75, and you're still going long? Isn't that playing with fire? --- I think the price at 95200 is uncertain. The pullback might go even deeper.

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liquidation_watcher

· 01-15 00:09

I've seen the decay of momentum coming for a while now. I was still hoping for a surge, but the points keep getting smaller, it's exhausting.

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