#加密市场周期与情绪 Seeing these two reports, I have a familiar feeling. Reaching a new high in 2026—this is always an easy thing to say during a bull market, but few actually live to see it happen.

More than a decade of cyclical repetition has taught me one thing: after every forced liquidation event, the market goes through a "digestive period." Those who survive see the true face of leverage and understand what fundamentals really mean. Delphi's partners put it plainly—no leverage, pay taxes on time—sounds dull, but it’s the key to surviving to the next cycle.

Grayscale’s logic is even more worth pondering. The need for value storage, government debt, and fiat currency devaluation—these macro backgrounds don’t appear out of nowhere. These were not present in 2016, and although they existed in 2021, awareness was insufficient. Regulation has shifted from opposition to framework-based, Wall Street has moved from observer to participant—these accumulated changes are the true meaning of "strong fundamentals."

But there’s a detail that’s easy to overlook: in the last cycle, how many people lost out in the expectation of "new highs"? Prediction itself isn’t the problem; the issue is execution. Saying "no leverage" sounds simple, but actually doing it requires repeatedly resisting human temptation.

If the first half of 2026 really breaks new highs, then looking back, what’s most worth recording isn’t that number, but what changes have occurred over these three years. Improvements in infrastructure, changes in participant composition, and the lessons learned by those who have made it to this moment.

History rarely repeats itself, but the rhythm often does.